Global Freight Market Update from China — August 2026 | SINO Shipping
LA
Lucas Arillotta
Graduate of IPAG Business School & Yunnan University — International Business & Logistics
Last updated on
The essentials of the article
  • 📉 The give-back arrives: 139 of 196 destinations printed a lower 40GP and the average lane fell 7.6%. Europe −14% as the 1 July peak-season surcharge simply lapsed (France −21%, Germany/Netherlands/Belgium/UK −19.5%), the Americas −16% (Mexico −35%) and Asia −13%, led by India −43%.
  • ✈️ Air stops being one market: air fell about 30% into Europe (Italy −44%, Netherlands −40%) while rising about 9% across the LATAM Atlantic (Brazil +24%). Rates eased but space did not fully reopen — consignments above 10,000 kg are still being split on tighter lanes.
  • 🧭 Two exceptions and one fixed cost: the Middle East sat the month out entirely at 0% (Saudi Arabia holding $6,615–8,085 on Hormuz risk) and Oceania was the only riser at +18%. For Europe, the EU's flat €3 duty on consignments up to €150 has applied since 1 July and does not move with freight.

SINO Shipping Global Market Monthly Update — August 2026

August 2026 at a glance: the broadest decline of the year — ocean gives back the July surcharge, and air splits by region. 139 of 196 destinations printed a lower 40GP, 29 higher, and the average lane fell 7.6%. Europe −14% as the 1 July peak-season surcharge round lapsed — France −21%, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and the UK −19.5%, Poland −14%. Only Germany is below its June base; other lanes remain above spring pricing. Americas −16%: Mexico −35%, Canada and the US −24%, Brazil and Argentina −27%. Asia −13%, led by India −43% to $1,575–1,925, with Singapore −33%, Vietnam −27%, Indonesia −25%. Asia lanes are below their June base. Africa −2% is the flattest region; Kenya and Nigeria unchanged, South Africa −3%. Middle East 0%: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Turkey, Israel all unchanged. Oceania +18% is the only rising region, led by New Zealand +19%. The cross-mode divergence: air fell about 30% into Europe — Italy −44%, the Netherlands −40% — while rising about 9% across the LATAM Atlantic, Brazil +24%. Air rates eased but space remains tight above 10,000 kg. The EU's temporary flat €3 customs duty on consignments up to €150 applies since 1 July 2026 and does not move with freight. Book eased lanes; verify air space as well as price.

📊
August broad decline, two exceptions

Most lanes fell: Europe −14%, Americas −16%, Asia −13%. Middle East held flat, Oceania +18%. Air diverged: down into Europe, up across the LATAM Atlantic. Indicators below — confirm with a firm quote at booking.

📈
The give-back arrives
Europe −14% · Americas −16% · Asia −13%
139 of 196 destinations lower as the 1 July peak-season surcharge lapses — book while it holds
🀄
Capacity eases east
India −43% · Singapore −33% · Vietnam −27%
Spring front-loading has fully unwound — the broadest buyer's window of the year
📦
Air flat-to-down
Air ≈ 0.9–1.1× MoM
An ocean capacity-and-demand event, not a cross-mode fuel shock

🔍 Why rates moved

🧾
July surcharge lapsed CMA CGM and Maersk peak-season surcharges ended; Europe −14% as lanes gave back the July increase, but most lanes remain above their June base
Strait of Hormuz risk Middle East lanes unchanged; Hormuz risk premium persists and does not decay with the surcharge cycle
📦
Ocean rates ease, air splits Ocean rates fell broadly; air rates diverged — down into Europe, up across the LATAM Atlantic
📉
Spring front-loading unwinds east Asia lanes eased as spring demand rolled off; Vietnam −27%, Singapore −33%, India −43%. Most lanes are below their June base

⚡ What to do now

📈 Lock the western lanes Oceania, Europe and the Americas are firming — secure allocation and 2–3 weeks validity before the surcharges compound
🀄 Buy the eastern dip Asia has eased again (India −43%, Singapore −33%, Vietnam −27%, Indonesia −25%) — these lanes are now below their June base
Watch Hormuz & Saudi Saudi Arabia held flat at $6,615–8,085 while its air rate stepped to $6.90/kg; the Hormuz premium has still not spread beyond it — quote GCC lanes fresh at booking
📊
Indicative pricing — confirm at booking

July split the map — western lanes firmed on risk and carrier surcharges while eastern lanes eased. Prices below are indicative — request a firm quote with 2–3 weeks validity before confirming, and quote the Gulf lanes fresh given the live Strait of Hormuz risk premium.

Source: SINO Shipping quotes, carrier filings, EAA Network. Rates are typical ex-China FCL/air spot unless noted.

From our China desk — voices on the ground

Beyond the numbers, here is what our China-side team is seeing this month — the human read behind July's split map, straight from the people booking space with carriers every day.

Found Chen, SINO Shipping China desk
Found Chen
Marketing · SINO South-China desk
🇪🇺 Europe focus
  • The 1 July surcharge round did the lifting: CMA CGM and Maersk pushed their peak-season surcharges into North Europe from the 1st (roughly $500/$1,000/$1,000 per 20'/40'/40HQ), and its lapse is what Europe gave back in August: −14% overall, with France −21%, the base ports −19.5% and Poland −14%.
  • Empty boxes are stuck on the coast: empty-container repositioning has stalled at Shanghai, Ningbo and Shenzhen while China's May exports ran +19.4% year-on-year, so equipment is tight into the surcharge round; the live Strait of Hormuz risk keeps carriers cautious with Gulf capacity.
  • Her advice: pre-book 3–4 weeks ahead to lock space and a fair rate on the western lanes. For small, urgent shipments, air freight is the smart choice right now — it stayed flat to down while ocean firmed.
Ruby Lu, SINO Shipping China desk
Ruby Lu
Operations · SINO South-China desk
🌎 North America & Oceania
  • North America: US and Canada 40GP rates fell −24% in August; Mexico −35%. The region moved off previous highs, with a broad decline across lanes.
  • Oceania is now the exception: New Zealand led a regional rise in August (+19%), with Pacific island lanes tracking the same upward move. Australia held flat.
  • Her advice: pre-book to secure space on Oceania and diversify carrier options for backup. Remember — strong port statistics do not equal supply-chain fluidity; schedule reliability is the biggest variable, so keep arrangements flexible.

On-the-ground commentary from SINO Shipping's China-based partner desk (F S International), August 2026.

Americas — August 2026

The Americas unwind −16% — the nearshoring run reprices. North America leads it down: Mexico 40GP $4,500–5,500 (−35%) almost exactly mirrors last month's +38%, with Canada $7,200–8,800 and the US $4,637–5,668 both −24%. The Atlantic followed as one block — Brazil and Argentina $5,310–6,490 (−27%), with Peru, Uruguay, Paraguay and the Caribbean on the same slope. The Pacific Alliance is the exception and needs reading carefully: Chile and Colombia $4,500–5,500 and Ecuador $5,490–6,710 show large gains only because we withheld their July quotes as structurally invalid — against the raw July prices those desks issued, the Pacific eased around 20%. Air went the other way to ocean: Brazil +24% to $12.40/kg, Argentina +13%, Chile +17%, while Mexico eased −14%. Book the Atlantic now; treat the Pacific deltas as catch-up, not a new level.

📈
North America leads the unwind, the Atlantic follows

Mexico 40GP −35%, Canada and the US −24% — North America gives back the nearshoring run — while Brazil and Argentina fall −27% and now sit below their June level. Verify rates at booking and ask for short validity (2–3 weeks).

📦
Americas unwind — August 2026

North America unwinds (Mexico −35%, Canada and the US −24%) and the Atlantic follows (Brazil and Argentina −27%). Chile, Colombia and Ecuador print large gains only because their July quotes were withheld as structurally invalid — against the raw July prices the Pacific eased about 20%. Consolidate into 40HQ and lock the North-American lanes early while space is tight.

🇲🇽
Mexico
↓ −35%
$5,000 (40GP)
🇨🇦
Canada
↓ −24%
$8,000 (40GP)
🇺🇸
USA
↓ −24%
$5,152 (40GP)
🇧🇷
Brazil
↓ −27%
$5,900 (40GP)
🇦🇷
Argentina
↓ −27%
$5,900 (40GP)

Why it moved

  • 🇲🇽 Mexico leads — 40GP $6,968–8,517 (+38%); among the steepest North-American moves as nearshoring demand holds.
  • 🇨🇦 Canada — 40GP $9,432–11,528 (+38%); firms in step with Mexico on the West-Coast strings.
  • 🇺🇸 US unwinds — 40GP $4,637–5,668 (−24%), in step with Canada as the nearshoring run reprices; the lane is now about 10% below its June level.
  • 🇧🇷 Brazil / 🇦🇷 Argentina — 40GP $5,310–6,490 (−27%); rates declined in August, reversing earlier gains.
  • 🇨🇱 Chile / 🇨🇴 Colombia / 🇪🇨 Ecuador — Pacific-coast lanes ($2,835–3,465 on 40GP) sit at the calmest end of the regional move.
  • ✈️ Air — flat to down MoM (≈0.9–1.1×) across the Americas — this is an ocean-capacity event, not a cross-mode fuel shock.

Rates at a glance

📊 Note: Prices below are indicative. North-American lanes unwound in August (Mexico −35%, Canada and the US −24%) and the Atlantic followed at −27% — always request an up-to-date quote with 2–3 weeks validity.

Rates table — Americas (USD)
Country Sea 20GP Sea 40GP LCL /CBM Air /kg Express /kg Transit
🌎 North America
🇺🇸 United States$4,612–5,637$4,637–5,668$130$6.6$15.214–22d
🇨🇦 Canada$6,480–7,920$7,200–8,800$180$7.1$14.716–25d
🇲🇽 Mexico$4,320–5,280$4,500–5,500$110$8.6$17.418–25d
Central America
🇧🇿 Belize$2,403–2,958$2,732–3,291$118.2$14.1$23.822–30d
🇨🇷 Costa Rica$2,403–2,958$2,732–3,291$118.2$14.1$23.820–28d
🇸🇻 El Salvador$2,403–2,958$2,732–3,291$118.2$14.1$23.820–28d
🇬🇹 Guatemala$2,403–2,958$2,732–3,291$118.2$14.1$23.820–28d
🇭🇳 Honduras$2,403–2,958$2,732–3,291$118.2$14.1$23.820–28d
🇳🇮 Nicaragua$2,403–2,958$2,732–3,291$118.2$14.1$23.820–28d
🇵🇦 Panama$2,403–2,958$2,732–3,291$118.2$14.1$23.818–25d
🏝️ Caribbean
🇦🇬 Antigua & Barbuda$8,240–10,017$9,543–11,622$168.8$14.9$23.99–13d
🇧🇸 Bahamas$8,240–10,017$9,543–11,622$168.8$14.9$23.925–32d
🇧🇧 Barbados$8,240–10,017$9,543–11,622$168.8$14.9$23.910–14d
🇨🇺 Cuba$10,847–13,195$12,538–15,325$355.5$14.9$23.928–35d
🇩🇲 Dominica$8,240–10,017$9,543–11,622$168.8$14.9$23.910–12d
🇩🇴 Dominican Rep.$8,240–10,017$9,543–11,622$168.8$14.9$23.925–32d
🇬🇩 Grenada$8,240–10,017$9,543–11,622$168.8$14.9$23.910–12d
🇭🇹 Haiti$8,240–10,017$9,543–11,622$168.8$14.9$23.910–15d
🇯🇲 Jamaica$8,240–10,017$9,543–11,622$168.8$14.9$23.925–32d
🇰🇳 St Kitts & Nevis$8,240–10,017$9,543–11,622$168.8$14.9$23.99–13d
🇱🇨 St Lucia$8,240–10,017$9,543–11,622$168.8$14.9$23.99–13d
🇻🇨 St Vincent$8,240–10,017$9,543–11,622$168.8$14.9$23.99–10d
🇹🇹 Trinidad & Tobago$8,240–10,017$9,543–11,622$168.8$14.9$23.99–13d
🌎 South America
🇦🇷 Argentina$5,040–6,160$5,310–6,490$115$12.4$19.232–40d
🇧🇴 Bolivia$3,440–4,209$3,895–4,776$113.7$11.7$19.935–42d
🇧🇷 Brazil$5,040–6,160$5,310–6,490$90$12.4$19.630–38d
🇨🇱 Chile$4,320–5,280$4,500–5,500$220$12.9$20.728–35d
🇨🇴 Colombia$4,320–5,280$4,500–5,500$190$9.4$14.925–32d
🇪🇨 Ecuador$5,220–6,380$5,490–6,710$80$10.3$16.328–35d
🇬🇾 Guyana$5,246–6,422$5,906–7,160$127.5$12.6$21.430–38d
🇵🇾 Paraguay$4,773–5,842$5,388–6,570$150$12.7$21.535–42d
🇵🇪 Peru$3,440–4,209$3,895–4,776$113.7$11.7$19.928–35d
🇸🇷 Suriname$5,246–6,422$5,906–7,160$127.5$12.6$21.430–38d
🇺🇾 Uruguay$4,406–5,369$4,946–6,054$207$15.5$25.132–40d
🇻🇪 Venezuela$5,246–6,422$5,906–7,160$127.5$12.6$21.428–35d

What this means for shippers

  • 🇲🇽 Mexico40GP $4,500–5,500 (−35%). The give-back is real here — book while it holds.
  • 🇨🇦 Canada40GP $7,200–8,800 (−24%). Pricing has come back to the shipper; lock validity rather than wait for more.
  • 🇺🇸 USA40GP $4,637–5,668 (−24%). A genuine buyer's window — take the space now.
  • 🇧🇷 Brazil / 🇦🇷 Argentina40GP $5,310–6,490 (−27% both). The Atlantic block gave back its summer gains in one cycle and now sits below its June level — book while it holds. Note air went the other way: Brazil +24% to $12.40/kg.
  • 🇨🇱 Chile / 🇨🇴 Colombia / 🇪🇨 Ecuador40GP $4,500–5,500 / $4,500–5,500 / $5,490–6,710. First structurally valid quotes since June. The large month-over-month gains are our withheld July read arriving late — against the raw July prices, the Pacific eased about 20%. Take the levels as current.
  • 📋 Strategic → A two-speed region: firming North America, decelerating Atlantic. Book the western lanes early; use the Atlantic's softening to your advantage.

Europe — August 2026

Europe gives back the surcharge, −14%. The 1 July peak-season round from CMA CGM and Maersk lapsed: France 40GP $4,005–4,895 (−21%) leads, with Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and the UK all $4,095–5,005 (−19.5%), Spain $5,175–6,325 (−17%), Italy $5,310–6,490 (−17%) and Poland −14%. Measured against June, only Germany is genuinely cheaper, down about 12% on its June base, while France sits 7% above its own and the Netherlands and the UK about 10% above. Air fell harder than ocean — Italy −44% to $4.10/kg, the Netherlands −40%, Norway −38%, the UK and Switzerland −33% — but that is price, not capacity: space has not fully reopened above 10,000 kg. Separately, the EU's flat €3 duty on consignments up to €150 has applied since 1 July and does not move with freight.

📈
Europe −14% as surcharge lapses

France, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and the UK all printed lower rates as the CMA CGM / Maersk peak-season surcharges ended. Only Germany is below its June base; other lanes remain above spring pricing.

🇵🇱
Poland
↓ −14%
$5,400 (40GP)
🇫🇷
France
↓ −21%
$4,450 (40GP)
🇳🇱
Netherlands
↓ −19%
$4,550 (40GP)
🇧🇪
Belgium
↓ −19%
$4,550 (40GP)
🇩🇪
Germany
↓ −19%
$4,550 (40GP)

Why it moved

  • 🧾 The 1 July surcharge round — CMA CGM and Maersk peak-season surcharges (~$500/$1,000/$1,000 per 20'/40'/40HQ) reset the North-Europe base ports overnight; its lapse is the engine of the −14% move.
  • 🇵🇱 Poland — 40GP $4,860–5,940 (−14%), though it still sits about 20% above its June base.
  • 🇫🇷🇳🇱🇧🇪 Base ports firm — France $4,005–4,895 (−21%), the Netherlands and Belgium $4,095–5,005 (−19.5%) as the surcharge lapses.
  • 🇩🇪 Germany milder — 40GP $5,085–6,215 (+10%); a reminder this is carrier action, not a physical shock — the move is uneven, not a blanket spike.
  • ✈️ Air flat to down — air freight broadly unchanged to softer MoM; an ocean capacity-and-demand event, not a cross-mode fuel shock.
  • 🚂 Rail relief — China–Europe rail remains a useful valve at 25–33 days where ocean space is tight.

Rates at a glance

📊 Note: Prices below are indicative. Europe eased −14% in August as the 1 July peak-season surcharge lapsed (France −21%, base ports −19.5%, Poland −14%) — confirm rates at booking and lock in with 2–3 weeks validity.

Rates table — Europe (USD)
Country Sea 20GP Sea 40GP LCL /CBM Air /kg Express /kg Rail LCL Rail 20GP Rail 40GP Transit
Western Europe (Main Ports)
🇧🇪 Belgium$2,295–2,805$4,095–5,005$35$4.4$7.9$220$4,950–6,050$7,335–8,96525–26d
🇫🇷 France$2,295–2,805$4,005–4,895$30$4.4$7.9$210$4,158–5,082$6,048–7,39225–28d
🇩🇪 Germany$2,295–2,805$4,095–5,005$45$4.7$7.5$210$4,770–5,830$7,470–9,13025–33d
🇮🇪 Ireland$2,790–3,410$4,680–5,720$65$5.2$9.425–27d
🇱🇺 Luxembourg$2,905–3,499$4,731–5,768$63$4.0$7.225–34d
🇳🇱 Netherlands$2,295–2,805$4,095–5,005$35$4.4$7.9$204$4,039–4,936$5,875–7,18025–32d
🇬🇧 United Kingdom$2,295–2,805$4,095–5,005$55$4.7$8.5$229$4,554–5,566$6,623–8,09525–28d
🇦🇩 Andorra$2,905–3,499$4,731–5,768$63$4.0$7.225–30d
🇱🇮 Liechtenstein$2,905–3,499$4,731–5,768$63$4.0$7.225–34d
🇲🇨 Monaco$2,905–3,499$4,731–5,768$63$4.0$7.225–28d
Northern Europe (Scandinavia & Baltics)
🇩🇰 Denmark$3,060–3,740$4,770–5,830$45$4.3$7.7$210$4,158–5,082$6,048–7,39225–32d
🇫🇮 Finland$3,305–4,080$4,376–5,368$60$3.7$6.7$220$4,356–5,324$6,336–7,74425–33d
🇮🇸 Iceland$4,566–5,537$6,028–7,349$60$3.7$6.725–33d
🇳🇴 Norway$3,690–4,510$5,220–6,380$45$4.6$8.3$229$4,554–5,566$6,623–8,09525–28d
🇸🇪 Sweden$3,060–3,740$4,590–5,610$80$5.2$9.4$220$4,356–5,324$6,336–7,74425–27d
🇪🇪 Estonia$3,337–4,151$4,765–5,835$52.5$3.8$6.825–33d
🇱🇻 Latvia$3,337–4,151$4,765–5,835$52.5$3.8$6.825–33d
🇱🇹 Lithuania$3,337–4,151$4,765–5,835$52.5$3.8$6.825–32d
Southern Europe (Mediterranean)
🇨🇾 Cyprus$3,764–4,560$5,783–7,092$43.9$3.8$6.925–28d
🇬🇷 Greece$3,764–4,560$5,783–7,092$43.9$3.8$6.925–31d
🇮🇹 Italy$3,420–4,180$5,310–6,490$40$4.1$7.4$235$4,356–5,324$7,110–8,69025–34d
🇲🇹 Malta$3,764–4,560$5,577–6,816$67.5$3.8$6.925–27d
🇵🇹 Portugal$3,150–3,850$4,500–5,500$30$4.9$8.825–26d
🇪🇸 Spain$3,330–4,070$5,175–6,325$45$4.1$7.4$215$4,356–5,324$7,470–9,13025–31d
🇹🇷 Turkey$1,314–1,606$2,295–2,805$38$6.2$14.0$7,110–8,69018–25d
🇸🇲 San Marino$3,329–4,125$5,233–6,403$39.3$3.8$6.825–29d
🇻🇦 Vatican City$3,329–4,125$5,233–6,403$39.3$3.8$6.825–32d
Central Europe
🇦🇹 Austria$3,240–3,960$4,950–6,050$85$4.4$7.9$210$4,158–5,082$6,048–7,39225–32d
🇨🇿 Czech Republic$2,988–3,622$5,233–6,353$45$4.1$7.3$204$4,039–4,936$5,875–7,18025–32d
🇭🇺 Hungary$2,988–3,622$5,233–6,353$45$4.1$7.3$204$4,039–4,936$5,875–7,18025–27d
🇵🇱 Poland$2,970–3,630$4,860–5,940$35$5.3$9.6$200$3,960–4,840$5,895–7,20525–31d
🇸🇰 Slovakia$2,988–3,622$5,233–6,353$45$4.1$7.3$204$4,039–4,936$5,875–7,18025–27d
🇨🇭 Switzerland$3,105–3,795$4,770–5,830$125$4.7$8.5$216$4,276–5,227$6,220–7,60325–32d
Eastern Europe
🇧🇾 Belarus$2,977–3,610$4,602–5,587$39.4$4.6$8.3$160$3,168–3,872$4,608–5,63225–30d
🇧🇬 Bulgaria$2,977–3,610$4,602–5,587$39.4$4.6$8.3$229$4,554–5,566$6,623–8,09525–26d
🇲🇩 Moldova$2,977–3,610$4,602–5,587$39.4$4.6$8.325–35d
🇷🇴 Romania$2,977–3,610$4,602–5,587$39.4$4.6$8.3$220$4,356–5,324$6,336–7,74425–30d
🇷🇺 Russia$5,310–6,490$8,820–10,780$132$3.2$6.5$160$3,168–3,872$4,608–5,63218–25d
🇺🇦 Ukraine$2,977–3,610$4,602–5,587$39.4$4.6$8.3$220$4,356–5,324$6,336–7,74425–31d
Balkans
🇦🇱 Albania$4,059–4,962$5,835–7,149$48.1$4.8$11.225–29d
🇧🇦 Bosnia$4,059–4,962$5,835–7,149$48.1$4.8$11.225–33d
🇭🇷 Croatia$4,059–4,962$5,835–7,149$48.1$4.8$11.225–28d
🇲🇪 Montenegro$4,059–4,962$5,835–7,149$48.1$4.8$11.225–29d
🇲🇰 North Macedonia$4,059–4,962$5,835–7,149$48.1$4.8$11.225–32d
🇷🇸 Serbia$4,059–4,962$5,835–7,149$48.1$4.8$11.2$229$4,554–5,566$6,623–8,09525–27d
🇸🇮 Slovenia$4,074–4,979$6,634–8,129$55$3.8$6.825–32d

What this means for shippers

  • 🇵🇱 Poland40GP $4,860–5,940 (−14%). The give-back is real here — book while it holds.
  • 🚢 Base ports (FR/NL/BE)40GP $4,095–5,005 (−19.5%), France $4,005–4,895 (−21%). The 1 July surcharge round lapsed here first — but only Germany is back below its June base; the rest still sit 7–10% above it.
  • 🇩🇪 Germany40GP $4,095–5,005 (−19%). Pricing has come back to the shipper; lock validity rather than wait for more.
  • 🧾 Surcharge timingPSS/GRA effective 1 July. Book before the next round compounds; ask carriers to cap surcharges in the quote where possible.
  • 🚂 Rail option$3,960–8,690 for 40GP, 25–33 days. A useful relief valve where ocean space is tight (Hungary, Czech, Poland).
  • 📅 Strategic → A surcharge-driven step-up, not a physical crisis — the move is uneven. Book early and lean on rail where available.

Africa — August 2026

Africa barely moved, −2% — the flattest region on the map. Where the rest of the world repriced hard in both directions, the continent held: Kenya $5,130–6,270 and Nigeria $3,150–3,850 printed unchanged, South Africa eased −3% and Senegal −7%, while Ivory Coast $4,005–4,895 (−9%) was the softest. The two risers are North African — Algeria $7,245–8,855 and Tunisia $7,757–9,420, both +11%. Air did move: Ghana −42% to $5.50/kg and South Africa −21% brought the continental average down about 7%. For buyers, Africa is the region where the July booking and the August booking cost roughly the same, so the decision reverts to space and schedule rather than price.

🦁
Africa barely moved at −2%, the flattest region on the map — Kenya and Nigeria printed unchanged, South Africa −3%, Senegal −7% and Ivory Coast −9%, while Algeria and Tunisia rose 11%. West Africa softened — Senegal −12%, a buyer's window — while Egypt's Suez-direct lane held steady. Confirm quotes at booking with 2–3 weeks validity.
🇰🇪
Kenya
→ steady
$5,700 (40GP)
🇿🇦
South Africa
↓ −3%
$3,350 (40GP)
🇲🇿
Mozambique
↓ −3%
$4,454 (40GP)
🇪🇬
Egypt
→ steady
$4,400 (40GP)
🇸🇳
Senegal
↓ −7%
$4,300 (40GP)

Why it moved

  • 🌍 Flat and selective — Africa saw little change in August, with most lanes flat or easing. The only gains were on Algeria and Tunisia (+11%), while Kenya and Nigeria held unchanged.
  • 🦁 The Cape strings held — Kenya unchanged at $5,130–6,270, South Africa −3% and Mozambique broadly flat; detoured Cape-of-Good-Hope tonnage keeps these lanes firm while the rest of the map eases.
  • 📉 West Africa eases — Senegal fell −12%, a buyer's window on the West-African lanes that did not follow the Cape move.
  • 🇪🇬 Egypt steady — the fastest Suez-direct transit (18–25 days) held roughly flat; a relatively efficient corridor away from the Cape reroute.
  • ✈️ Air flat to down — air freight broadly unchanged to softer MoM; this is an ocean capacity-and-demand event, not a cross-mode fuel shock.
  • 🌳 Central Africa — Congo/DRC and the interior lanes track the modest continental move.

Rates at a glance

📊 Note: Prices below are indicative. African lanes were largely flat in August, with Kenya and Nigeria unchanged, South Africa −3%, Senegal −7%, Ivory Coast −9%. Algeria and Tunisia rose +11%. Confirm at booking with 2–3 weeks validity.

Rates table — Africa (USD)
Country Sea 20GP Sea 40GP LCL /CBM Air /kg Express /kg Transit
🏜️ North Africa
🇩🇿 Algeria$4,815–5,885$7,245–8,855$185$6.8$14.235–44d
🇪🇬 Egypt$3,015–3,685$3,960–4,840$105$6.5$15.618–25d
🇱🇾 Libya$5,420–6,711$7,757–9,420$142$6.5$14.234–43d
🇲🇦 Morocco$5,420–6,711$7,757–9,420$142$6.5$14.222–28d
🇸🇩 Sudan$7,304–8,924$9,401–11,496$390.4$10.5$15.335–37d
🇹🇳 Tunisia$5,420–6,711$7,757–9,420$142$6.5$14.232–34d
West Africa
🇧🇯 Benin$4,901–5,978$6,013–7,387$270$8.1$16.733–34d
🇧🇫 Burkina Faso$4,901–5,978$6,013–7,387$270$8.1$16.734–36d
🇨🇻 Cabo Verde$4,901–5,978$6,013–7,387$270$8.1$13.135–43d
🇬🇲 Gambia$4,901–5,978$6,013–7,387$270$8.1$16.732–40d
🇬🇭 Ghana$3,465–4,235$4,500–5,500$252$5.5$10.032–42d
🇬🇳 Guinea$4,901–5,978$6,013–7,387$270$8.1$16.732–37d
🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau$4,901–5,978$6,013–7,387$270$8.1$16.733–44d
🇨🇮 Ivory Coast$3,285–4,015$4,005–4,895$235$8.3$15.133–36d
🇱🇷 Liberia$4,901–5,978$6,013–7,387$270$8.1$16.735–42d
🇲🇱 Mali$4,901–5,978$6,013–7,387$270$8.1$16.733–37d
🇲🇷 Mauritania$4,901–5,978$6,013–7,387$270$8.1$16.732–44d
🇳🇪 Niger$4,901–5,978$6,013–7,387$270$8.1$16.735–42d
🇳🇬 Nigeria$2,970–3,630$3,150–3,850$435$6.8$14.335–38d
🇸🇳 Senegal$3,645–4,455$3,870–4,730$455$7.7$12.234–39d
🇸🇱 Sierra Leone$4,901–5,978$6,013–7,387$270$8.1$16.734–42d
🇹🇬 Togo$3,285–4,015$4,005–4,895$120$12.0$19.233–44d
🌳 Central Africa
🇨🇲 Cameroon$6,608–8,093$8,131–10,020$946$8.1$16.732–38d
🇨🇫 Central African Rep.$5,534–6,763$7,180–8,828$700$8.1$16.832–44d
🇹🇩 Chad$5,534–6,763$7,180–8,828$700$8.1$16.933–39d
🇨🇬 Congo$4,635–5,665$5,985–7,315$665$8.6$17.234–36d
🇨🇩 DR Congo$5,534–6,763$7,180–8,828$700$8.1$16.532–37d
🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea$6,438–7,885$8,358–10,297$946$8.2$16.733–43d
🇬🇦 Gabon$6,438–7,885$8,358–10,297$946$8.2$16.734–40d
🇸🇹 São Tomé$6,608–8,093$8,131–10,020$946$8.1$16.634–39d
🦁 East Africa
🇧🇮 Burundi$3,274–3,999$4,193–5,140$160$9.8$16.035–41d
🇰🇲 Comoros$2,996–3,649$3,518–4,312$150$5.6$9.732–37d
🇩🇯 Djibouti$3,359–4,126$4,261–5,275$166.4$9.8$15.734–39d
🇪🇷 Eritrea$3,274–4,041$4,125–5,140$166.4$9.8$15.633–38d
🇪🇹 Ethiopia$3,107–3,872$3,991–4,937$163.2$9.6$15.425–32d
🇰🇪 Kenya$3,825–4,675$5,130–6,270$180$5.5$8.822–28d
🇲🇬 Madagascar$2,842–3,457$3,291–4,085$153$5.4$8.732–35d
🇲🇼 Malawi$3,303–4,070$4,143–4,994$154.5$5.8$13.734–39d
🇲🇺 Mauritius$2,842–3,532$3,348–4,143$153$5.5$8.833–37d
🇲🇿 Mozambique$3,226–3,916$4,028–4,879$157.5$4$6.434–41d
🇷🇼 Rwanda$6,795–8,305$8,640–10,560$576$14.7$23.435–42d
🇸🇨 Seychelles$2,917–3,609$3,405–4,256$154.5$5.5$8.833–42d
🇸🇴 Somalia$3,274–4,041$4,125–5,140$166.4$9.8$15.635–41d
🇸🇸 South Sudan$3,274–3,999$4,193–5,140$160$9.8$13.032–44d
🇹🇿 Tanzania$3,107–3,872$3,991–4,937$163.2$9.6$15.422–28d
🇺🇬 Uganda$6,129–7,491$7,263–8,877$450$9.4$15.032–37d
Southern Africa
🇦🇴 Angola$3,111–3,835$4,295–5,179$103$8.0$19.025–32d
🇧🇼 Botswana$3,303–4,070$4,143–4,994$154.5$5.8$13.733–34d
🇸🇿 Eswatini$3,303–4,070$4,143–4,994$154.5$5.8$13.732–35d
🇱🇸 Lesotho$3,303–4,070$4,143–4,994$154.5$5.8$13.734–43d
🇳🇦 Namibia$3,303–4,070$4,143–4,994$154.5$5.8$13.722–30d
🇿🇦 South Africa$2,682–3,278$3,015–3,685$188$6.2$13.722–30d
🇿🇲 Zambia$3,303–4,070$4,143–4,994$154.5$5.8$13.732–38d
🇿🇼 Zimbabwe$3,303–4,070$4,143–4,994$154.5$5.8$13.725–33d

What this means for shippers

  • 🇰🇪 Kenya40GP $5,130–6,270 (flat); air $5.5/kg. Flat while others repriced — no urgency on price, only on space.
  • 🇿🇦 South Africa40GP $3,015–3,685 (−3%). The give-back is real here — book while it holds.
  • 🇲🇿 Mozambique40GP $4,028–4,879 (−3%). Pricing has come back to the shipper; lock validity rather than wait for more.
  • 🇸🇳 Senegal40GP $3,870–4,730 (−7%). A genuine buyer's window — take the space now.
  • 🇪🇬 Egypt fastestSuez-direct 18–25 days, roughly flat. Best logistics efficiency in North Africa and off the Cape reroute.
  • 📋 DocumentationSONCAPs and COCs ready. West Africa compliance critical — prepare docs early.

Middle East — August 2026

The Middle East sat the month out entirely — 0% across the region. Every lane we price held its August level: Saudi Arabia $6,615–8,085, the UAE $4,688–6,563, Turkey $2,295–2,805 and Israel $3,500–4,250 all unchanged. That is what an unresolved risk premium looks like — it does not decay with the surcharge cycle, because it was never a surcharge. The one real move is on the air side: Saudi Arabia's air rate resolved to $6.90/kg, a 60% step from what we had been publishing. Our desk data had carried $6.90 for three consecutive months while our own anomaly rule kept suppressing it against the previously suppressed figure; the rule now requires a reading to be new rather than merely large. Gulf infrastructure is being planned around the chokepoint — DP World is building a container terminal for up to 2.5m TEU a year outside the strait — but none of that relieves box freight this year.

🕌
Concentrated: Saudi unchanged on Hormuz, the rest flat — Saudi Arabia carries the region on Strait of Hormuz risk (40GP $6,615–8,085). UAE, Qatar and Kuwait held flat; the Levant (Israel/Lebanon/Jordan) and Turkey were steady. The Hormuz risk premium is live, so quote GCC lanes fresh at booking with 2–3 weeks validity.
🇸🇦
Saudi Arabia
→ steady
$7,350 (40GP)
🇦🇪
UAE
→ steady
$5,626 (40GP)
🇶🇦
Qatar
→ steady
$5,876 (40GP)
🇮🇱
Israel
→ steady
$3,875 (40GP)
🇹🇷
Turkey
→ steady
$2,550 (40GP)

Why it moved

  • 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia — 40GP $6,615–8,085; the region's whole print sits here, driven by Strait of Hormuz risk. August saw no change, as the risk premium is independent of surcharge cycles.
  • ⚓ Strait of Hormuz risk — VLCC tanker rates jumped 82–92% week-on-week; Iran now demands mandatory insurance and a northern route, the US threatens counter-tolls, and the two-route confusion keeps the risk premium live.
  • 🕌 The rest of the Gulf held flat — UAE, Qatar and Kuwait were unchanged MoM; the risk premium has not (yet) spread beyond Saudi.
  • 🇮🇱 Levant steady / 🇹🇷 Turkey steady — Israel/Lebanon/Jordan and Turkey (40GP $2,295–2,805) held; sea/rail remain the workhorse modes.
  • 🇷🇺 Russia — rail $4,608–5,632 (40GP) remains a steady overland option.
  • ✈️ Air flat to down — Dubai DXB, Doha, Jeddah broadly unchanged to softer MoM at ~$4.0/kg; an ocean event, not a fuel shock.

Rates at a glance

📊 Note: Prices below are indicative. August saw no movement in Middle East sea rates — the risk premium remains live, so confirm Gulf lanes fresh at booking with 2–3 weeks validity.

Rates table — Middle East (USD)
Country Sea 20GP Sea 40GP LCL /CBM Air /kg Express /kg Transit
🇦🇪 UAE$3,294–4,086$4,688–6,563$57$4.3$6.812–18d
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia$5,085–6,215$6,615–8,085$20$6.9$11.114–20d
🇶🇦 Qatar$3,492–4,283$5,188–6,563$60$4.2$6.78–13d
🇰🇼 Kuwait$1,845–2,240$2,813–3,438$37$4.6$7.410–13d
🇧🇭 Bahrain$3,492–4,283$5,188–6,563$60$4.2$6.78–13d
🇴🇲 Oman$3,427–4,217$5,125–6,438$60$4.2$6.69–12d
🇮🇱 Israel$2,451–3,008$3,500–4,250$59$6.1$15.310–12d
🇯🇴 Jordan$2,228–2,730$3,150–3,950$52$5.3$9.58–10d
🇱🇧 Lebanon$2,228–2,730$3,150–3,950$52$5.3$9.59–12d
🇸🇾 Syria$2,228–2,730$3,150–3,950$52$5.3$9.59–13d
🇮🇶 Iraq$3,008–3,677$4,200–5,300$61$4.3$6.816–22d
🇮🇷 Iran$3,064–3,788$4,350–5,450$61$4.3$6.814–20d
🇾🇪 Yemen$2,228–2,730$3,150–3,950$52$5.3$9.59–14d

What this means for shippers

  • 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia40GP $6,615–8,085 (flat). Unchanged month-over-month — the decision is space and schedule, not price.
  • 🇦🇪 UAE / 🇶🇦 Qatar40GP $4,688–6,563 / $5,188–6,563 (both flat). Unchanged for a second month, like the rest of the Gulf — the Hormuz premium has still not spread beyond Saudi Arabia. Consolidate into 40HQ.
  • 🇰🇼 Kuwait40GP $2,813–3,438 (flat). Held its level; quote fresh but expect little movement.
  • 🇮🇱 Israel40GP $3,500–4,250 (flat). Flat while others repriced — no urgency on price, only on space.
  • 🇹🇷 Turkey40GP $2,295–2,805 (flat). Unchanged month-over-month — the decision is space and schedule, not price.
  • ✈️ Air split by region~$4.0/kg — air rates into Europe fell about 30%, while across the LATAM Atlantic they rose about 9%. This was not a fuel shock; ocean and air moved independently.

Asia — August 2026

Asia deepens the easing, −13% — and India leads the whole map down. India 40GP $1,575–1,925 (−43%) is the sharpest single fall of the month, having tripled between May and June. Singapore $450–550 (−33%), Vietnam $360–440 (−27%), the Philippines −25% and Indonesia $900–1,100 (−25%) followed, with Thailand −12%, Pakistan −11% and Sri Lanka −9%. Unlike Europe these lanes have cleared their spring base outright — Vietnam is 20% and Singapore 23% below their June levels — so spring's front-loading has fully unwound here. Japan is the lone riser at +4% to $540–660. Air eased more modestly, about −8% regionally, though Japan air fell 35% to $1.50/kg. This is the clearest buyer's window on the map.

🌏
Asia broad easing — India −43% ($1,575–1,925 on 40GP), Singapore −33%, Vietnam −27%, Indonesia −25%, Thailand −12%, Pakistan −11%, Sri Lanka −9%. Japan is the lone riser at +4%. Spring front-loading has unwound; most lanes are below their June base.
🇵🇰
Pakistan
↓ −11%
$1,877 (40GP)
🇮🇳
India
↓ −43%
$1,750 (40GP)
🇰🇿
Kazakhstan (rail)
→ steady
$4,480 (40GP rail)
🇹🇭
Thailand
↓ −12%
$550 (40GP)
🇱🇰
Sri Lanka
↓ −9%
$1,950 (40GP)

Why it moved

  • 🇵🇰 Pakistan −11% — 40GP $1,877; broad easing across South and Southeast Asia.
  • 🇮🇳 India −43% — 40GP $1,575–1,925; the sharpest single fall on the map, having tripled between May and June.
  • 🚂 Middle Corridor rail +18% — Kazakhstan/Uzbekistan (Central Asia) firmed moderately; still a viable overland route at 8–15 days.
  • 🌏 SE Asia eases — Indonesia −25%, Thailand −12% and Sri Lanka −9% as spring front-loading unwinds; most lanes are below their June base.
  • 🀄 East Asia steady — China, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan origins held broadly steady; the front-loading unwind is the eastern story now.
  • ✈️ Air flat to down — air freight broadly unchanged to softer MoM; this is an ocean capacity-and-demand event, not a cross-mode fuel shock.

Rates at a glance

📊 Note: Prices below are indicative. Asia eased −13% in August, led by India −43%, with Singapore −33%, Vietnam −27% and Indonesia −25% — verify each lane at booking.

Rates table — Asia (USD)
Country Sea 20GP Sea 40GP LCL /CBM Air /kg Express /kg Rail LCL Rail 20GP Rail 40GP Transit
East Asia
🇯🇵 Japan$315–385$540–660$10$1.5$2.69–10d
🇰🇷 South Korea$341–411$537–642$13.5$1.6$2.78–12d
🇹🇼 Taiwan$341–411$537–642$13.5$1.6$2.710–13d
🇰🇵 North Korea$341–411$537–642$11.3$1.5$2.79–15d
🇲🇳 Mongolia$3,457–4,287$5,313–6,513$75$5.4$9.2$180$3,564–4,356$5,184–6,3369–10d
Southeast Asia (ASEAN)
🇸🇬 Singapore$270–330$450–550$15$1.7$3.29–11d
🇲🇾 Malaysia$450–550$855–1,045$18$1.8$4.38–10d
🇹🇭 Thailand$270–330$495–605$20$1.5$2.710–13d
🇻🇳 Vietnam$270–330$360–440$18$1.4$3.58–13d
🇮🇩 Indonesia$495–605$900–1,100$22$2.6$4.610–14d
🇵🇭 Philippines$212–259$438–535$22$1.6$3.110–11d
🇰🇭 Cambodia$504–702$848–1,095$25$1.9$3.510–12d
🇲🇲 Myanmar$504–702$848–1,095$28$1.9$3.59–14d
🇱🇦 Laos$504–702$848–1,095$28$1.9$3.59–12d
🇧🇳 Brunei$504–702$848–1,095$20$1.9$3.59–10d
🇹🇱 Timor-Leste$504–702$848–1,095$30$1.9$3.59–13d
South Asia
🇮🇳 India$1,395–1,705$1,575–1,925$10$5$8.010–14d
🇵🇰 Pakistan$1,629–1,990$1,689–2,065$15$5$89–10d
🇧🇩 Bangladesh$1,575–1,925$1,710–2,090$70$1.8$2.910–15d
🇱🇰 Sri Lanka$1,710–2,090$1,755–2,145$45$5.5$8.810–15d
🇳🇵 Nepal$2,275–2,684$2,824–3,566$44.7$4.8$7.610–12d
🇧🇹 Bhutan$2,175–2,589$2,824–3,485$43.8$4.6$7.99–12d
🇲🇻 Maldives$2,275–2,684$2,903–3,647$45.7$4.8$7.610–14d
🇦🇫 Afghanistan$5,343–6,425$6,936–8,591$97.2$5.5$7.99–15d
Central Asia & Caucasus
🇰🇿 Kazakhstan$5,789–7,115$9,187–11,381$97.2$6.8$13.2$140$2,772–3,388$4,031–4,92810–12d
🇺🇿 Uzbekistan$5,789–7,115$9,187–11,381$97.2$6.8$13.2$160$3,168–3,872$4,608–5,6328–15d
🇹🇲 Turkmenistan$5,789–7,115$9,187–11,381$97.2$6.8$13.2$180$3,564–4,356$5,184–6,33610–14d
🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan$5,789–7,115$9,187–11,381$97.2$6.8$13.2$150$2,970–3,630$4,320–5,2809–11d
🇹🇯 Tajikistan$5,789–7,115$9,187–11,381$97.2$6.8$13.2$170$3,366–4,114$4,896–5,9849–13d
🇬🇪 Georgia$3,064–3,743$4,887–5,952$68.1$5.4$12.59–15d
🇦🇿 Azerbaijan$3,064–3,743$4,887–5,952$68.1$5.4$12.59–10d
🇦🇲 Armenia$3,064–3,743$4,887–5,952$68.1$5.4$12.510–11d

What this means for shippers

  • 🇵🇰 Pakistan40GP $1,689–2,065 (−11%). Pricing has come back to the shipper; lock validity rather than wait for more.
  • 🇮🇳 India40GP $1,575–1,925 (−43%). A genuine buyer's window — take the space now.
  • 🇹🇭 Thailand / 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka40GP $495–605 (−12%) / $1,755–2,145 (−9%). Both eased again on top of last month's falls; the sharper regional moves are now India −43% and Singapore −33%.
  • 🇮🇩 Indonesia40GP $900–1,100 (−25%). The give-back is real here — book while it holds.
  • 🀄 East Asia (CN/KR/JP/TW)steady. Held broadly flat; the front-loading unwind further south is the eastern relief now.
  • 🚂 Central Asia railKazakhstan/Uzbekistan +18%, 8–15 days. Still a viable overland route despite the moderate step-up.

Oceania — August 2026

Oceania is the month's only rising region, +18%. New Zealand 40GP $4,455–5,445 (+19%) leads the move and the Pacific island lanes track it, while Australia held flat at $4,365–5,335. Air firmed regionally, up about 10%. With all other regions easing, Oceania is now the one place where deferring a booking carries a measurable cost: the transpacific space constraint persists, and capacity freed up in South-East Asia has not reached Oceania.

📦
Oceania +18% — the month's only riser — New Zealand (40GP $4,455–5,445) leads at +19%; Australia (40GP $4,365–5,335) held flat. Pacific island lanes track the regional move. Air firmed about 10% regionally. Book early; space remains tight.
🇦🇺
Australia
→ steady
$4,850 (40GP)
🇳🇿
New Zealand
↑ +19%
$4,950 (40GP)

Why it moved

  • 🇦🇺 Australia flat — 40GP $4,365–5,335, unchanged in August. New Zealand was the region's leader with a +19% increase.
  • 🏝️ Pacific islands track it — Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Samoa move with New Zealand.
  • 📦 Book early — space is tight; capacity freed in South-East Asia has not reached Oceania.
  • ✈️ Air up regionally — air freight rose about 10%.
  • 📦 LCL — Australia $35/cbm, NZ $38/cbm.

Rates at a glance

📊 Note: Prices below are indicative. Oceania was the only region to rise in August (+18% avg), led by New Zealand (+19%) while Australia held flat. Confirm at booking with 2–3 weeks validity.

Rates table — Oceania (USD)
Country Sea 20GP Sea 40GP LCL /CBM Air /kg Express /kg Transit
🇦🇺 Australia$2,205–2,695$4,365–5,335$35$3.5$5.620–27d
🇳🇿 New Zealand$2,250–2,750$4,455–5,445$38$4$6.720–23d
🇫🇯 Fiji$5,250–6,417$10,530–12,755$57$3$7.320–27d
🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea$5,250–6,417$10,530–12,755$57$3$7.320–24d
🇼🇸 Samoa$5,250–6,417$10,530–12,755$57$3$7.320–25d
🇹🇴 Tonga$5,250–6,417$10,530–12,755$57$3$7.320–25d
🇻🇺 Vanuatu$5,250–6,417$10,530–12,755$57$3$7.320–22d
🇸🇧 Solomon Islands$5,250–6,417$10,530–12,755$57$3$7.320–24d
🇰🇮 Kiribati$5,250–6,417$10,530–12,755$57$3$7.320–21d
🇫🇲 Micronesia$5,250–6,417$10,530–12,755$57$3$7.320–25d
🇵🇼 Palau$5,250–6,417$10,530–12,755$57$3$7.320–28d
🇲🇭 Marshall Islands$5,250–6,417$10,530–12,755$57$3$7.320–27d
🇳🇷 Nauru$5,250–6,417$10,530–12,755$57$3$7.320–22d
🇹🇻 Tuvalu$5,250–6,417$10,530–12,755$57$3$7.320–28d

What this means for shippers

  • 🇦🇺 Australia40GP $4,365–5,335 (flat). Held its level; quote fresh but expect little movement.
  • 🇳🇿 New Zealand40GP $4,455–5,445 (+19%). Firming while the rest of the map eases — book ahead.
  • 🏝️ Pacific islandsFiji/PNG/Samoa track the +19% move. Island lanes tighten with New Zealand while Australia holds flat — lock validity at booking.
  • ✈️ Air flat to down~$5.5/kg. Broadly unchanged to softer MoM; sea remains the better cost choice.
  • 📅 PlanningBook for July/August arrivals. Sea capacity is tightest here — book 4–6 weeks ahead.

Frequently Asked Questions

Because the force that lifted July was scheduled, and it expired. The 1 July peak-season surcharge round from CMA CGM and Maersk was a carrier action rather than a physical constraint, so it came back out on time: Europe fell 14%, with France −21% and the base ports −19.5%. The Americas unwound alongside it (Mexico −35%, Canada and the US −24%, Brazil and Argentina −27%), and Asia deepened an easing that was already under way — India −43%, Singapore −33%, Vietnam −27%. In all, 139 of 196 destinations printed lower and the average lane fell 7.6%. Two regions did not follow: the Middle East was flat at 0%, because a risk premium does not decay with a surcharge cycle, and Oceania rose 18%. One caveat on Europe — measured against June rather than July, only Germany is genuinely cheaper.
Most lanes moved down in August: India saw the sharpest drop (−43%), Singapore (−33%), Vietnam (−27%), Philippines (−25%), Indonesia (−25%), and Mexico (−35%). Europe declined −14% overall, with France (−21%), Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, UK (−19.5%), Spain (−17%), Italy (−17%), and Poland (−14%). Americas fell −16%, with Canada and US (−24%), Brazil and Argentina (−27%), and Peru (−27%). Africa was mostly flat (−2%), with Kenya and Nigeria unchanged. Exceptions were Oceania (+18%), led by New Zealand (+19%), and Algeria/Tunisia (+11%). The Middle East was unchanged, with Saudi Arabia, UAE, Turkey, and Israel holding steady. Air rates dropped sharply into Europe (Italy −44%, Netherlands −40%) but rose in LATAM (Brazil +24%).
Cape of Good Hope detours still add days and soak up tonnage on some EMEA strings. The direct effect on Americas lanes is limited, but reallocations can tighten select services. Build buffer and validate transshipment plans.
US universal 10% plus higher tiers on China/Vietnam sustained timing shifts and frontloading. Retaliation (CA/MX/CN) adds complexity. Align HS codes early, plan departure windows, and consider DDP or alternative routings where sensible.
No — air cargo stayed flat to down month-over-month (≈0.9–1.1× across most corridors). That is the key tell: July's move is a sea-side capacity-and-demand event, not a cross-mode fuel shock. On the firming western lanes (Oceania, Europe, the Gulf), the ocean-to-air gap narrowed, so air is worth a fresh comparison on time-sensitive cargo; on the eased eastern lanes (SE Asia −16% to −32%), sea is the clear value choice this month.
Yes—negotiate while carriers compete. Ask for 2–3 week validity, bunker/GRI caps, and fallback routings. Keep visibility on blank sailings that can shift cut‑offs.
With the broad give-back in August, FCL is more attractive on most lanes, especially where rates have eased (Asia −13%, Americas −16%, Europe −14%). For small shipments, LCL remains competitive, particularly in Africa where rates were flat or only slightly down. Oceania is the exception, with rising rates (+18%), so consolidating volume may help offset costs. In the Middle East, unchanged rates mean mode choice depends on shipment size and urgency. Air cargo is split: Europe lanes are cheaper (−30%), but LATAM rates are up (+9%). Compare all-in landed cost and consider transit time, as risk premiums and rerouting persist.
Pre‑validate HS classification and supply product specs/tests. For West Africa, ensure required COC/SONCAP and clean docs to reduce inspection risk. For China Reg 150 categories (lamps, LV electrics, functional apparel), expect tighter export checks—pad lead time.

Ship with confidence.

Solid plans. Clear updates. Fewer surprises.

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