SINO Shipping Global Market Monthly Update — November 2025
November at a glance: ocean and air freight markets from China. Comprehensive regional analysis with FCL, LCL, and air cargo rates. Market trends continue to evolve with capacity adjustments and seasonal demand patterns shaping rates across all major trade lanes.
▼ Down — supply ahead of demand
▲ Up — stronger pull/tighter space
≈ Stable — a few lanes firmer
What changed this month
- SEA Rates down in US/Canada/Europe ↓; up in Mexico and Oceania/South Asia ↑; mixed in ASEAN; steady in Japan ≈.
- AIR Mostly stable; up in UK, Germany, Argentina, Colombia, Ecuador ↑; down in Australia, Uruguay, Kenya ↓.
- SUPPLY Too much capacity + Red Sea detours reshuffled ships across lanes.
- TARIFFS Frontloading faded; retaliation keeps timing‑sensitive lanes under pressure.
- AFRICA Air space is tight on some lanes; cold‑chain demand stays high.
Why it moved
Key events moving the market
- Supply & capacity: too many ships on the main trades (≈+8% YoY). Even with blank sailings/GRIs, supply beat demand — US/EU ocean rates eased.
- Demand mix: the US unwound pre‑tariff frontloading; the Q4 e‑commerce bump propped up air and a few Asia lanes — results vary by trade.
- Red Sea: ships still detour around the Cape, adding days and soaking up capacity. Disruption is steadier than early‑2025, not gone.
- Policy & tariffs: US 10% universal + reciprocal (~11–50%) with higher tiers on China/Vietnam; Canada/Mexico/China responded — routings stayed tactical.
- Costs & surcharges: EU ETS and fuel costs set a floor, but capacity still drove ocean pricing.
- Regional dynamics: Mexico nearshoring kept MX west‑coast lanes firm; Nigeria inspections raised dwell risk; China widened export checks (Reg. 150) for some HS codes.
What this means for shippers
- Negotiate now on US/Canada/Europe ocean lanes — and try to secure validity.
- Pre‑book Mexico, Oceania and India where prices climbed to lock space.
- Plan around tariff windows to avoid paying a rush premium.
- Set A/B routings to hedge Red Sea and port bottlenecks.
- Double‑check HS codes & docs (CN Reg. 150; West Africa) to avoid holds.
North America — November 2025
What changed this month
- USA West Sea down 2–15% ↓ (20GP/40HQ); air stable 4.5/kg ≈ (LAX).
- USA East Sea down 13–21% ↓ (20GP/40HQ); air stable 5.5–5.6/kg ≈ (JFK/MIA).
- Canada Sea down 0–13% ↓; air stable 5.5–5.8/kg ≈ (YVR/YYZ/YUL).
- Mexico Sea up 50–53% ↑ (20GP/40HQ); air stable 7/kg ≈ (MEX/GDL/MTY).
- Shipper note Leverage US/CA softness to renegotiate; pre‑book MX where rates jumped.
Why it moved
- Tariffs & frontloading: US April regime set a high baseline; post‑frontloading demand eased on West/East coasts.
- Retaliation & policy: Canada/Mexico responses stabilized air; ocean priced more on capacity than policy.
- Capacity: vessel oversupply pressured US/EU rates; Mexico lanes tightened on demand/allocations.
Rates at a glance
| Region | Port/Country | Container Type | Sea Freight Rate (USD) | Change (%) | Air Freight Rate (USD/kg) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA West Coast | Los Angeles/Long Beach | 20GP | 1880 → 1600 | -15% | 4.5 → 4.5 (LAX) | 0% |
| USA West Coast | Los Angeles/Long Beach | 40HQ | 2350 → 2300 | -2% | 4.5 → 4.5 (LAX) | 0% |
| USA East Coast | New York/Savannah/Norfolk | 20GP | 2650 → 2100 | -21% | 5.6 → 5.6 (JFK); 5.5 → 5.5 (MIA) | 0%; 0% |
| USA East Coast | New York/Savannah/Norfolk | 40HQ | 3150 → 2750 | -13% | 5.6 → 5.6 (JFK); 5.5 → 5.5 (MIA) | 0%; 0% |
| Canada | Toronto | 20GP | 4000 → 3500 | -13% | 5.8 → 5.8 (YYZ) | 0% |
| Canada | Toronto | 40HQ | 4400 → 4300 | -2% | 5.8 → 5.8 (YYZ) | 0% |
| Canada | Montreal | 20GP | 3550 → 3550 | 0% | 5.8 → 5.8 (YUL) | 0% |
| Canada | Montreal | 40HQ | 4300 → 4300 | 0% | 5.8 → 5.8 (YUL) | 0% |
| Canada | Vancouver | — | — | — | 5.5 → 5.5 (YVR) | 0% |
| Mexico | Manzanillo | 20GP | 2500 → 3750 | +50% | 7 → 7 (MEX) | 0% |
| Mexico | Manzanillo | 40HQ | 3000 → 4600 | +53% | 7 → 7 (MEX) | 0% |
| Mexico | Lazaro Cardenas | 20GP | 2500 → 3750 | +50% | 7 → 7 (GDL; MTY) | 0%; 0% |
| Mexico | Lazaro Cardenas | 40HQ | 3000 → 4600 | +53% | 7 → 7 (GDL; MTY) | 0%; 0% |
What this means
- USA West: Price softness suggests negotiating room; consider faster sailings if schedules improve via re‑routed capacity.
- USA East: Sea declines align with easing congestion; keep air as a time‑saver for high‑value SKUs.
- Canada: Mixed sea (0–13% ↓) with steady air; lane selection (Toronto vs Montreal/Vancouver) can shave days.
- Mexico: 50%+ sea jumps indicate tight space; book early and validate port/rail handoffs.
Europe & Mediterranean — November 2025
Europe cooled on ocean: main ports dropped ~26–28%, the Mediterranean held steady to slightly softer, and "others" like Switzerland/Poland fell hard. Air was mixed — firmer in the UK/Germany, steady elsewhere.
What changed this month
- Main ports Heavy sea declines: 20GP to $1400, 40GP/HQ to $2350 ↓.
- Mediterranean Italy/Turkey flat; Spain down slightly on 20GP and more on 40GP.
- Others Switzerland −37–43%; Poland −9–24% on sea; air broadly stable ~$4/kg.
- Air UK +40% (LHR 4.2); Germany +14% (HAM 4.0); France steady 4.1; Spain slightly up to 4.3.
Why it moved
- Oversupply & cascades: more tonnage and service re‑shuffles into EU head trades pushed ocean prices down.
- Red Sea routings: detours stabilized vs early‑2025 but still absorb capacity; med lanes stayed balanced.
- Policy & demand: US‑EU tariff noise and softer macro trimmed orders; e‑commerce buoyed select air lanes.
- Shoulder season: inventory normalization added to downward pressure on boxes.
Rates at a glance
| Region | Port/Country | Container Type | Sea Freight Rate (USD) | Change (%) | Air Freight Rate (USD/kg) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mediterranean | Italy (Genova) | 20GP | 2650 → 2650 | 0% | 3.5 → 3.5 (IT) | 0% |
| Mediterranean | Italy (Genova) | 40GP | 3300 → 3300 | 0% | 3.5 → 3.5 (IT) | 0% |
| Mediterranean | Spain (Barcelona/Valencia) | 20GP | 2115 → 2100 | -0.7% | 4.17 → 4.3 (ES) | +3.1% |
| Mediterranean | Spain (Barcelona/Valencia) | 40GP | 3100 → 2800 | -9.7% | 4.17 → 4.3 (ES) | +3.1% |
| Mediterranean | Turkey (Istanbul) | 20GP | 1460 → 1460 | 0% | 4.5 → 4.5 (TR) | 0% |
| Mediterranean | Turkey (Istanbul) | 40GP | 2550 → 2550 | 0% | 4.5 → 4.5 (TR) | 0% |
| Main Ports | UK (Southampton) | 20GP | 1900 → 1400 | -26.3% | 3 → 4.2 (LHR); 4.2 → 4.2 (MAN); 4 → 4.2 (BHX) | +40%; 0%; +5% |
| Main Ports | UK (Southampton) | 40HQ | 3250 → 2350 | -27.7% | 3 → 4.2 (LHR); 4.2 → 4.2 (MAN); 4 → 4.2 (BHX) | +40%; 0%; +5% |
| Main Ports | Netherlands (Rotterdam) | 20GP | 1900 → 1400 | -26.3% | — | — |
| Main Ports | Netherlands (Rotterdam) | 40GP | 3250 → 2350 | -27.7% | — | — |
| Main Ports | France (Le Havre) | 20GP | 1900 → 1400 | -26.3% | 4.1 → 4.1 (FR) | 0% |
| Main Ports | France (Le Havre) | 40GP | 3250 → 2350 | -27.7% | 4.1 → 4.1 (FR) | 0% |
| Main Ports | Germany (Hamburg) | 20GP | 1900 → 1400 | -26.3% | 3.5 → 4 (HAM) | +14.3% |
| Main Ports | Germany (Hamburg) | 40GP | 3250 → 2350 | -27.7% | 3.5 → 4 (HAM) | +14.3% |
| Main Ports | Belgium (Antwerp) | 20GP | 1900 → 1400 | -26.3% | — | — |
| Main Ports | Belgium (Antwerp) | 40GP | 3250 → 2350 | -27.7% | — | — |
| Others | Switzerland (Basel) | 20GP | 2550 → 1600 | -37.3% | 4 → 4 (CH) | 0% |
| Others | Switzerland (Basel) | 40GP | 4400 → 2500 | -43.2% | 4 → 4 (CH) | 0% |
| Others | Poland (Gdansk) | 20GP | 2300 → 2100 | -8.7% | 4 → 4 (PL) | 0% |
| Others | Poland (Gdansk) | 40GP | 3700 → 2800 | -24.3% | 4 → 4 (PL) | 0% |
What this means
- Negotiate now on EU main ports — carriers are competing on price; watch for quick GRIs.
- Use Med stability (Italy/Turkey) to plan longer validity; in Spain, target 40GP savings.
- Mind the outliers: CH/PL saw deep cuts — validate carriers' space/feeder schedules.
- Air for urgency: UK/DE firmer but reliable; FR/TR stable give predictable costs.
Africa — November 2025
Ocean eased across West/Central/South Africa, stayed mixed in East Africa, and was stable in North Africa. Air was mostly steady, with a notable +8% in Ghana and a −4% dip in Kenya. Cold‑chain demand remained strong; space into JNB was tight at times.
What changed this month
- West Africa Sea down 9–18% ↓ (Ghana, Ivory Coast, Senegal, Togo); Nigeria 20GP −10%, 40GP +1%; air mostly stable except Ghana +8% → 7.7/kg.
- East Africa Kenya sea flat; air −4% to 5.5/kg; Rwanda 20GP +1%, 40GP −9%; Uganda 20/40GP −6%.
- Central Congo (Matadi) sea −12–13% ↓; air steady at 7/kg.
- South South Africa sea −4–6% ↓ (Durban/Cape Town); air stable 5.5/kg ≈.
- North Sudan stable on sea and air (6.5/kg).
Why it moved
- Inspections & compliance: Nigeria seizures increased scrutiny, adding dwell risk at WA hubs.
- Red Sea detours: longer routings soaked capacity but stabilized vs early‑2025.
- Cold‑chain & e‑commerce: perishable flows kept air firm; some lanes sold out near JNB.
- Policy & checks: China Reg. 150 widened export inspections for select HS, prompting paperwork delays.
Rates at a glance
| Region | Port/Country | Container Type | Sea Freight Rate (USD) | Change (%) | Air Freight Rate (USD/kg) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Africa | Ghana (Tema) | 20GP | 3600 → 3200 | -11% | 7.1 → 7.7 | +8% |
| West Africa | Ghana (Tema) | 40GP | 4400 → 3600 | -18% | 7.1 → 7.7 | +8% |
| West Africa | Nigeria (Apapa) | 20GP | 4550 → 4100 | -10% | 6.1 → 6.1 | 0% |
| West Africa | Nigeria (Apapa) | 40GP | 4550 → 4600 | +1% | 6.1 → 6.1 | 0% |
| West Africa | Ivory Coast (Abidjan) | 20GP | 3600 → 3200 | -11% | 8 → 8 | 0% |
| West Africa | Ivory Coast (Abidjan) | 40GP | 4400 → 3600 | -18% | 8 → 8 | 0% |
| West Africa | Senegal (Dakar) | 20GP | 4650 → 4250 | -9% | 7.2 → 7.2 | 0% |
| West Africa | Senegal (Dakar) | 40GP | 5400 → 4600 | -15% | 7.2 → 7.2 | 0% |
| West Africa | Togo (Lome) | 20GP | 3600 → 3200 | -11% | 7.8 → 7.8 | 0% |
| West Africa | Togo (Lome) | 40GP | 4400 → 3600 | -18% | 7.8 → 7.8 | 0% |
| East Africa | Kenya (Mombasa) | 20GP | 1600 → 1600 | 0% | 5.7 → 5.5 | -4% |
| East Africa | Kenya (Mombasa) | 40GP | 1900 → 1900 | 0% | 5.7 → 5.5 | -4% |
| East Africa | Rwanda (Kigali) | 20GP | 7400 → 7500 | +1% | 7 → 7 | 0% |
| East Africa | Rwanda (Kigali) | 40GP | 9450 → 8600 | -9% | 7 → 7 | 0% |
| East Africa | Uganda (Kampala) | 20GP | 5810 → 5460 | -6% | 6.5 → 6.5 | 0% |
| East Africa | Uganda (Kampala) | 40GP | 7000 → 6570 | -6% | 6.5 → 6.5 | 0% |
| Central Africa | Congo (Matadi) | 20GP | 5300 → 4600 | -13% | 7 → 7 | 0% |
| Central Africa | Congo (Matadi) | 40GP | 6500 → 5700 | -12% | 7 → 7 | 0% |
| South Africa | Durban | 20GP | 3275 → 3075 | -6% | 5.5 → 5.5 | 0% |
| South Africa | Durban | 40HQ | 4350 → 4150 | -5% | 5.5 → 5.5 | 0% |
| South Africa | Cape Town | 20GP | 3375 → 3175 | -6% | 5.5 → 5.5 | 0% |
| South Africa | Cape Town | 40HQ | 4550 → 4350 | -4% | 5.5 → 5.5 | 0% |
| North Africa | Sudan | 20GP | 6100 → 6100 | 0% | 6.5 → 6.5 | 0% |
| North Africa | Sudan | 40GP | 6270 → 6270 | 0% | 6.5 → 6.5 | 0% |
What this means
- Book early for West Africa to lock space and avoid dwell‑driven rollovers.
- Build compliance buffers (Nigeria checks; CN Reg. 150) — ensure HS and docs are watertight.
- Hedge via routing (alt ports/feeders) and keep JNB lead times realistic.
- Use air tactically for perishables/urgent SKUs; Kenya dip (5.5/kg) is an opportunity.
Asia-Pacific — November 2025
A tale of two curves: Oceania rose on resilient demand, South Asia (India) climbed on policy and pull‑through, while ASEAN was mixed and Japan stayed steady to slightly softer. Air mostly stable across the region with pockets of movement.
What changed this month
- Oceania Australia +11–14% (20/40GP); air −5% to 3.8/kg. New Zealand +41–44% (20/40GP); air stable 4/kg.
- ASEAN Singapore flat; Malaysia 20GP +7–11%, 40GP up to +3.4%, air +33%; Indonesia mixed (20GP −9.6% to +19%; 40GP −0.6% to −14.8%), air flat; Thailand 20GP +16–31%, 40GP −6–12%, air flat; Vietnam 20GP 0–+11%, 40GP +14–17%, air flat; Philippines sea up on some lanes, air −28.6%.
- South Asia India +16–28% (40GP) and +17–22% (20GP); Sri Lanka 40GP +14.7%, 20GP flat; air steady.
- East Asia Japan 20GP flat; 40GP −10%; air steady at 1.5/kg.
Why it moved
- Capacity & cascades: fleet redeployments lifted Oceania/India while keeping ASEAN competitive.
- Policy friction: India–US tariff tension and Red Sea detours nudged certain lanes higher.
- Demand pockets: Q4 e‑commerce supported air in hubs; Philippines/Kenya‑like dips show lane‑specific relief.
- Japan stability: predictable planning kept sea flat/slightly down and air unchanged.
Rates at a glance
| Region | Port/Country | Container Type | Sea Freight Rate (USD) | Change (%) | Air Freight Rate (USD/kg) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oceania | Australia (SYD/MEL/BNE) | 20GP | 1350 → 1500 | +11.1% | 4 → 3.8 | -5% |
| Oceania | Australia (SYD/MEL/BNE) | 40GP | 2550 → 2900 | +13.7% | 4 → 3.8 | -5% |
| Oceania | New Zealand (Auckland) | 20GP | 850 → 1200 | +41.2% | 4 → 4 | 0% |
| Oceania | New Zealand (Auckland) | 40GP | 1600 → 2300 | +43.8% | 4 → 4 | 0% |
| ASEAN | Singapore | 20GP | 325 → 325 | 0% | 2 → 1.5 | -25% |
| ASEAN | Singapore | 40GP | 550 → 550 | 0% | 2 → 1.5 | -25% |
| ASEAN | Malaysia (PKG/PNG/PGU) | 20GP | 450–705 → 500–755 | +7.1–11.1% | 1.5 → 2 | +33.3% |
| ASEAN | Malaysia (PKG/PNG/PGU) | 40GP | 800–1160 → 800–1200 | 0–+3.4% | 1.5 → 2 | +33.3% |
| ASEAN | Indonesia (JKT/SUB/SMG) | 20GP | 415–420 → 375–500 | −9.6% to +19% | 2.3 → 2.3 | 0% |
| ASEAN | Indonesia (JKT/SUB/SMG) | 40GP | 675–775 → 575–770 | −0.6% to −14.8% | 2.3 → 2.3 | 0% |
| ASEAN | Thailand (BKK/LCB) | 20GP | 275 → 320–360 | +16.4–30.9% | 1.5 → 1.5 | 0% |
| ASEAN | Thailand (BKK/LCB) | 40GP | 400–480 → 375–425 | −6.3–11.5% | 1.5 → 1.5 | 0% |
| ASEAN | Vietnam (HCM/HAN) | 20GP | 125–135 → 125–150 | 0–+11.1% | 1.5 → 1.5 | 0% |
| ASEAN | Vietnam (HCM/HAN) | 40GP | 150–175 → 175–200 | +14.3–16.7% | 1.5 → 1.5 | 0% |
| ASEAN | Philippines (MNL/CEB) | 20GP | 75–315 → 100–315 | 0–+33.3% | 2.1 → 1.5 | -28.6% |
| ASEAN | Philippines (MNL/CEB) | 40GP | 100–405 → 125–405 | 0–+25% | 2.1 → 1.5 | -28.6% |
| South Asia | India (NS/Chennai) | 20GP | 1150–1350 → 1350–1650 | +17.4–22.2% | 4.5 → 4.5 | 0% |
| South Asia | India (NS/Chennai) | 40GP | 1250–1450 → 1450–1850 | +16–27.6% | 4.5 → 4.5 | 0% |
| South Asia | Sri Lanka (Colombo) | 20GP | 1600 → 1600 | 0% | 5.5 → 5.5 | 0% |
| South Asia | Sri Lanka (Colombo) | 40GP | 1700 → 1950 | +14.7% | 5.5 → 5.5 | 0% |
| East Asia | Japan (TYO/YOK/KOB) | 20GP | 300 → 300 | 0% | 1.5 → 1.5 | 0% |
| East Asia | Japan (TYO/YOK/KOB) | 40GP | 500 → 450 | -10% | 1.5 → 1.5 | 0% |
What this means
- Book early into Australia/NZ — rates are up and space tight.
- Exploit ASEAN spreads: target Malaysia/Vietnam value lanes; watch Indonesia variability.
- Budget higher for India and seek longer validity to smooth volatility.
- Keep air as a safety valve for Q4 peaks; Philippines dip and AU −5% are opportunities.
Latin America — November 2025
Mixed picture: Argentina/Brazil/Uruguay down on ocean, while Chile/Colombia/Ecuador/Cuba up. Air stayed mostly steady with small rises in Argentina/Colombia/Ecuador and a dip in Uruguay.
What changed this month
- Argentina Sea −24–30% ↓; air +4% to 7.3/kg.
- Brazil Sea −21–28% ↓; air stable 6/kg ≈.
- Chile Sea +28–34% ↑; air stable 7/kg.
- Colombia Sea +34–56% ↑; air +13% to 8/kg.
- Ecuador Sea +39–53% ↑; air +10% to 11/kg.
- Cuba Sea mixed (20GP +7%; 40HQ −5%); air stable 10/kg.
- Uruguay Sea −28–29% ↓; air −9% to 8/kg.
Why it moved
- Tariffs & retaliation: US regime and responses shifted sourcing and timing, creating winners (west coast LatAm) and decliners (Plate region).
- Capacity vs demand: new tonnage + soft macro dragged down east‑coast sea; strong pockets (Chile/Colombia/Ecuador) tightened space.
- Nearshoring & agro: perishables and regionalization supported air and select ocean lanes.
Rates at a glance
| Region | Port/Country | Container Type | Sea Freight Rate (USD) | Change (%) | Air Freight Rate (USD/kg) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | Buenos Aires | 20GP | 4880 → 3500 | -28% | 7 → 7.3 | +4% |
| Argentina | Buenos Aires | 40HQ | 5150 → 3600 | -30% | 7 → 7.3 | +4% |
| Argentina | Rosario | 20GP | 6600 → 4800 | -27% | — | — |
| Argentina | Rosario | 40HQ | 7000 → 5300 | -24% | — | — |
| Brazil | Santos | 40HQ | 5150 → 3700 | -28% | 6 → 6 | 0% |
| Brazil | Rio de Janeiro | 40HQ | 4700 → 3700 | -21% | 6 → 6 | 0% |
| Brazil | Paranagua | 40HQ | 5150 → 3700 | -28% | 6 → 6 | 0% |
| Chile | Valparaiso | 20GP | 2900 → 3750 | +29% | 7 → 7 | 0% |
| Chile | Valparaiso | 40HQ | 3600 → 4600 | +28% | 7 → 7 | 0% |
| Chile | San Antonio | 20GP | 2800 → 3750 | +34% | 7 → 7 | 0% |
| Chile | San Antonio | 40HQ | 3400 → 4600 | +35% | 7 → 7 | 0% |
| Colombia | Buenaventura | 20GP | 2800 → 3750 | +34% | 7.1 → 8.0 | +13% |
| Colombia | Buenaventura | 40HQ | 2950 → 4600 | +56% | 7.1 → 8.0 | +13% |
| Cuba | Mariel | 20GP | 7450 → 8000 | +7% | 10 → 10 | 0% |
| Cuba | Mariel | 40HQ | 8950 → 8500 | -5% | 10 → 10 | 0% |
| Ecuador | Guayaquil | 20GP | 2700 → 3750 | +39% | 10 → 11 | +10% |
| Ecuador | Guayaquil | 40HQ | 3000 → 4600 | +53% | 10 → 11 | +10% |
| Uruguay | Montevideo | 20GP | 4880 → 3500 | -28% | 8.8 → 8.0 | -9% |
| Uruguay | Montevideo | 40HQ | 5150 → 3600 | -29% | 8.8 → 8.0 | -9% |
What this means
- Lock savings on AR/BR/UY sea now; ask for validity and bunker/GRI caps.
- Pre‑book CL/CO/EC where sea surged; verify port/rail transits and free time.
- Use air selectively for high‑value lanes — note AR/CO/EC upticks and UY relief.
- Watch tariff windows and adjust departure dates to avoid last‑minute premiums.