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SINO Lane Tracker 期号 15

2025年12月 快照

Post-peak unwind hits every cluster

The Q4 frontloading capacity that defined autumn is gone. Every secondary cluster we track printed negative this month.


196 条航线 22 条已注解 发布于 2025年12月5日 方法论 v1 JSON RSS 引用 获取报价 → 最新快照 →

集群动能 · 海运 40GP 平均环比

中间走廊
-11.3%
5 条航线
东非
-13.2%
5 条航线
中东北非
-17.7%
4 条航线
拉美
-2.7%
5 条航线
东南亚
-3.9%
3 条航线

图集 · 海运 40GP 环比

全部 194 条航线,呈现于地图

每个圆点代表一个目的地国家。颜色反映本月海运 40GP 环比 Δ。较大圆点标记 22 条每月跟踪并注解的航线。点击圆点查看完整运价与趋势。

  • 上涨 > +5% 环比
  • 中性 ±5%
  • 下跌 < −5% 环比
  • 无数据
  • 注解航线

194 个代表目的地国家的圆点绘于地图上。颜色反映环比变化。键盘导航请使用本页下方的数据表。

编辑按语 · 2025年12月

Post-peak unwind hits every cluster

The Q4 frontloading capacity that defined autumn is gone. Every secondary cluster we track printed negative this month.

本期分析背后的团队

  • Ethan WuEthan WuSINO Shipping 市场经理Hong Kong
  • Found ChenFound ChenSINO Shipping 战略贸易专家Shenzhen
  • Ruby LuRuby LuSINO Shipping 北美与大洋洲市场专员Shenzhen

China → Turkey sea 40GP fell 23.9% MoM, the deepest single-country move of the snapshot. MENA secondary ports as a group lost 17.7%, with Saudi Arabia, Oman and Jordan all double-digit down as carriers unwound the extra strings that had been deployed for Q4 retail restock.

Middle Corridor sea legs followed the same pattern — Georgia and Azerbaijan both off 23.6% — as the trans-Caspian routings that had carried Russia-bypass volumes through autumn re-priced toward a calmer baseline. KZ/UZ/KG rail tariffs held flat, the usual stabiliser when sea variance widens.

Red Sea / East Africa shed 13.2% on average and even Egypt, the Suez gateway most exposed to the rerouting premium, gave back 20%. LATAM nearshoring was the only cluster near flat — Peru +0.3%, the rest pinned at zero — a reminder that the West Coast trade runs on its own calendar, not the East Asia peak cycle.

下月关注

  • Pre-Lunar New Year frontloading window (factories close mid-February) — expect a January–early-February bid on China-origin space.
  • MENA secondary port floors: at -17.7% cluster average, any further give would signal carriers conceding the autumn premium entirely.
  • Red Sea security headlines into year-end — a sustained de-escalation would extend the East Africa unwind into Q1.

作者 SINO Shipping desk

本月

8 条本月焦点

聚焦 · 本月

3 条涨幅 ↑ · 3 条跌幅 ↓ · 2 条叙事聚焦 · 每月轮换

12 个月趋势 · 海运 40GP 均值

各集群的走势,海运 40GP 均值

每条线对应一个编辑集群。悬停图表查看月度数值。用以洞察各月聚焦背后的结构性变化。

$537 $2,111 $3,685 $5,260 $6,834 -11m -8m -5m -2m 2025年12月

    查看数据表
    各集群 12 个月海运 40GP USD 均值
    月份 中间走廊 东非 中东北非 拉美 东南亚
    11 个月前 $5,495 $5,120 $6,400 $4,870 $1,246
    10 个月前 $4,655 $4,330 $5,288 $4,295 $1,133
    9 个月前 $4,085 $3,720 $4,431 $3,155 $1,038
    8 个月前 $3,620 $3,205 $3,706 $2,910 $1,038
    7 个月前 $3,775 $3,355 $3,906 $2,965 $1,038
    6 个月前 $4,455 $4,215 $5,075 $4,010 $1,171
    5 个月前 $4,365 $3,975 $4,794 $3,465 $1,083
    4 个月前 $3,895 $3,430 $4,025 $2,730 $1,038
    3 个月前 $3,755 $3,340 $3,900 $2,835 $1,017
    2 个月前 $3,260 $2,800 $3,150 $2,465 $971
    1 个月前 $3,435 $2,975 $3,369 $2,940 $1,038
    2025年12月 $3,016 $2,539 $2,773 $2,847 $998
    • 中间走廊
    • 东非
    • 中东北非
    • 拉美
    • 东南亚
    波动

    最大波动 — 海运 40GP

    涨幅榜

    海运 40GP 环比

    跌幅榜

    海运 40GP 环比
    覆盖

    全部 196 中国出口航线

    标记 22 条焦点池航线。

    ← 滑动以查看所有列 →

    对比 12 月 展开行
    阿尔巴尼亚
    $2,970–$3,630 $7.00 $11.20 -23.7%
    阿尔及利亚
    $6,030–$7,370 $6.80 $10.88 -20.0%
    阿富汗
    $1,102–$1,347 $4.90 $7.84 -10.9%
    阿根廷
    $2,160–$2,640 $9.20 $14.72 +1.1%
    阿拉伯联合酋长国
    $2,790–$3,410 $6.10 $9.76 -15.7%
    编辑池航线。 阿曼
    $2,629–$3,214 $6.40 $10.24 -15.3%
    编辑池航线。 阿塞拜疆
    $2,629–$3,214 $6.40 $10.24 -23.6%
    编辑池航线。 埃及
    $3,960–$4,840 $6.30 $10.08 -20.0%
    埃塞俄比亚
    $1,710–$2,090 $5.50 $8.80 -11.6%
    爱尔兰
    $2,340–$2,860 $7.20 $11.52 -24.1%
    爱沙尼亚
    $2,587–$3,162 $6.80 $10.88 -23.9%
    安道尔
    $2,205–$2,695 $6.30 $10.08 -24.0%
    安哥拉
    $2,334–$2,853 $7.20 $11.52 -13.6%
    安提瓜和巴布达
    $6,840–$8,360 $10.00 $16.00 -13.9%
    奥地利
    $2,520–$3,080 $6.70 $10.72 $6,048–$7,392 -23.8%
    澳大利亚
    $2,295–$2,805 $3.80 $6.08 -5.6%
    巴巴多斯
    $6,840–$8,360 $10.00 $16.00 -13.9%
    巴布亚新几内亚
    $2,250–$2,750 $4.00 $6.40 -5.7%
    巴哈马
    $6,840–$8,360 $10.00 $16.00 -13.9%
    巴基斯坦
    $1,350–$1,650 $5.00 $8.00 -10.4%
    巴拉圭
    $2,459–$3,006 $9.40 $15.04 +0.3%
    巴林
    $2,629–$3,214 $6.40 $10.24 -15.3%
    巴拿马
    $2,700–$3,300 $9.50 $15.20 -13.7%
    编辑池航线。 巴西
    $2,250–$2,750 $9.00 $14.40 =
    白俄罗斯
    $2,250–$2,750 $7.50 $12.00 $4,608–$5,632 -23.7%
    保加利亚
    $2,250–$2,750 $7.50 $12.00 $6,623–$8,095 -23.7%
    北马其顿
    $2,970–$3,630 $7.00 $11.20 -23.7%
    贝宁
    $2,841–$3,472 $8.70 $13.92 -13.5%
    比利时
    $2,205–$2,695 $6.75 $10.80 $5,875–$7,180 -24.0%
    冰岛
    $2,587–$3,162 $6.80 $10.88 -23.9%
    波兰
    $2,250–$2,750 $7.50 $12.00 $5,760–$7,040 -23.7%
    波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那
    $2,970–$3,630 $7.00 $11.20 -23.7%
    玻利维亚
    $2,459–$3,006 $9.40 $15.04 +0.3%
    伯利兹
    $2,700–$3,300 $9.50 $15.20 -13.7%
    博茨瓦纳
    $2,334–$2,853 $7.20 $11.52 -13.6%
    不丹
    $1,102–$1,347 $4.90 $7.84 -10.9%
    布基纳法索
    $2,841–$3,472 $8.70 $13.92 -13.5%
    布隆迪
    $2,771–$3,386 $6.80 $10.88 -10.8%
    朝鲜
    $540–$660 $1.30 $2.35 -2.0%
    赤道几内亚
    $3,422–$4,183 $8.60 $13.76 -13.6%
    丹麦
    $2,340–$2,860 $6.80 $10.88 $6,048–$7,392 -24.1%
    德国
    $2,205–$2,695 $4.70 $7.52 $5,760–$7,040 -24.0%
    东帝汶
    $974–$1,191 $1.80 $3.25 -3.8%
    多哥
    $2,736–$3,344 $10.00 $16.00 -13.1%
    多米尼加共和国
    $6,840–$8,360 $10.00 $16.00 -13.9%
    多米尼克
    $6,840–$8,360 $10.00 $16.00 -13.9%
    俄罗斯
    $2,771–$3,386 $6.80 $10.88 $4,608–$5,632 -3.0%
    编辑池航线。 厄瓜多尔
    $2,700–$3,300 $9.00 $14.40 =
    厄立特里亚
    $1,710–$2,090 $5.50 $8.80 -11.6%
    法国
    $2,205–$2,695 $6.95 $11.12 $6,048–$7,392 -24.0%
    梵蒂冈
    $2,771–$3,386 $6.80 $10.88 -24.0%
    编辑池航线。 菲律宾
    $745–$910 $1.30 $2.35 -4.1%
    斐济
    $2,250–$2,750 $4.00 $6.40 -5.7%
    芬兰
    $2,587–$3,162 $6.80 $10.88 $6,336–$7,744 -23.9%
    佛得角
    $2,771–$3,386 $6.80 $10.88 -13.3%
    冈比亚
    $2,841–$3,472 $8.70 $13.92 -13.5%
    刚果(布)
    $3,422–$4,183 $8.60 $13.76 -13.6%
    刚果(金)
    $4,005–$4,895 $8.50 $13.60 -13.6%
    编辑池航线。 哥伦比亚
    $2,700–$3,300 $9.00 $14.40 =
    哥斯达黎加
    $2,700–$3,300 $9.50 $15.20 -13.7%
    格林纳达
    $6,840–$8,360 $10.00 $16.00 -13.9%
    编辑池航线。 格鲁吉亚
    $2,629–$3,214 $6.40 $10.24 -23.6%
    古巴
    $6,840–$8,360 $10.00 $16.00 -13.9%
    圭亚那
    $2,459–$3,006 $9.40 $15.04 +0.3%
    编辑池航线。 哈萨克斯坦
    $2,771–$3,386 $6.80 $10.88 $4,031–$4,928 -3.0%
    海地
    $6,840–$8,360 $10.00 $16.00 -13.9%
    韩国
    $540–$660 $2.60 $4.40 -2.0%
    荷兰
    $2,205–$2,695 $6.90 $11.04 $5,875–$7,180 -24.0%
    黑山
    $2,970–$3,630 $7.00 $11.20 -23.7%
    洪都拉斯
    $2,700–$3,300 $9.50 $15.20 -13.7%
    基里巴斯
    $2,250–$2,750 $4.00 $6.40 -5.7%
    编辑池航线。 吉布提
    $1,710–$2,090 $5.50 $8.80 -11.6%
    编辑池航线。 吉尔吉斯斯坦
    $2,771–$3,386 $6.80 $10.88 $4,320–$5,280 -3.0%
    几内亚
    $2,841–$3,472 $8.70 $13.92 -13.5%
    几内亚比绍
    $2,841–$3,472 $8.70 $13.92 -13.5%
    加拿大
    $4,140–$5,060 $5.70 $9.12 -14.0%
    加纳
    $2,430–$2,970 $8.56 $13.70 -13.6%
    加蓬
    $3,422–$4,183 $8.60 $13.76 -13.6%
    编辑池航线。 柬埔寨
    $974–$1,191 $1.80 $3.25 -3.8%
    捷克
    $2,250–$2,750 $7.50 $12.00 $5,875–$7,180 -23.7%
    津巴布韦
    $2,334–$2,853 $7.20 $11.52 -13.6%
    喀麦隆
    $2,841–$3,472 $8.70 $13.92 -13.5%
    卡塔尔
    $2,629–$3,214 $6.40 $10.24 -15.3%
    科摩罗
    $2,334–$2,853 $7.20 $11.52 -11.3%
    科特迪瓦
    $2,745–$3,355 $9.20 $14.72 -14.1%
    科威特
    $2,629–$3,214 $6.40 $10.24 -15.3%
    克罗地亚
    $2,970–$3,630 $7.00 $11.20 -23.7%
    编辑池航线。 肯尼亚
    $1,710–$2,090 $5.50 $8.80 -11.6%
    拉脱维亚
    $2,587–$3,162 $6.80 $10.88 -23.9%
    莱索托
    $2,334–$2,853 $7.20 $11.52 -13.6%
    老挝
    $974–$1,191 $1.80 $3.25 -3.8%
    黎巴嫩
    $2,629–$3,214 $6.40 $10.24 -15.3%
    立陶宛
    $2,587–$3,162 $6.80 $10.88 -23.9%
    利比里亚
    $2,841–$3,472 $8.70 $13.92 -13.5%
    利比亚
    $4,995–$6,105 $6.30 $10.08 -20.1%
    列支敦士登
    $2,205–$2,695 $6.30 $10.08 -24.0%
    卢森堡
    $2,205–$2,695 $6.30 $10.08 -24.0%
    卢旺达
    $7,740–$9,460 $7.00 $11.20 -11.1%
    罗马尼亚
    $2,250–$2,750 $7.50 $12.00 $6,336–$7,744 -23.7%
    马达加斯加
    $2,334–$2,853 $7.20 $11.52 -11.3%
    马尔代夫
    $1,102–$1,347 $4.90 $7.84 -10.9%
    马耳他
    $2,970–$3,630 $7.00 $11.20 -23.7%
    马拉维
    $2,334–$2,853 $7.20 $11.52 -11.3%
    马来西亚
    $1,062–$1,298 $3.00 $4.80 -3.7%
    马里
    $2,841–$3,472 $8.70 $13.92 -13.5%
    马绍尔群岛
    $2,250–$2,750 $4.00 $6.40 -5.7%
    毛里求斯
    $2,334–$2,853 $7.20 $11.52 -11.3%
    毛里塔尼亚
    $2,841–$3,472 $8.70 $13.92 -13.5%
    美国
    $2,677–$3,272 $7.00 $11.20 -13.8%
    蒙古
    $2,771–$3,386 $6.80 $10.88 $5,184–$6,336 -3.0%
    孟加拉国
    $1,080–$1,320 $4.50 $7.20 -11.1%
    编辑池航线。 秘鲁
    $2,459–$3,006 $9.40 $15.04 +0.3%
    密克罗尼西亚
    $2,250–$2,750 $4.00 $6.40 -5.7%
    编辑池航线。 缅甸
    $974–$1,191 $1.80 $3.25 -3.8%
    摩尔多瓦
    $2,250–$2,750 $7.50 $12.00 -23.7%
    摩洛哥
    $4,995–$6,105 $6.30 $10.08 -20.1%
    摩纳哥
    $2,205–$2,695 $6.30 $10.08 -24.0%
    编辑池航线。 莫桑比克
    $2,334–$2,853 $7.20 $11.52 -11.3%
    编辑池航线。 墨西哥
    $2,700–$3,300 $9.50 $15.20 -13.7%
    纳米比亚
    $2,334–$2,853 $7.20 $11.52 -13.6%
    南非
    $2,335–$2,854 $7.16 $11.46 -13.5%
    南苏丹
    $1,710–$2,090 $5.50 $8.80 -11.6%
    瑙鲁
    $2,250–$2,750 $4.00 $6.40 -5.7%
    尼加拉瓜
    $2,700–$3,300 $9.50 $15.20 -13.7%
    尼泊尔
    $1,102–$1,347 $4.90 $7.84 -10.9%
    尼日尔
    $2,841–$3,472 $8.70 $13.92 -13.5%
    尼日利亚
    $3,456–$4,224 $7.20 $11.52 -13.7%
    挪威
    $2,835–$3,465 $6.90 $11.04 $6,623–$8,095 -24.1%
    帕劳
    $2,250–$2,750 $4.00 $6.40 -5.7%
    葡萄牙
    $2,655–$3,245 $6.90 $11.04 -23.9%
    日本
    $540–$660 $2.80 $4.75 -2.0%
    瑞典
    $2,587–$3,162 $6.80 $10.88 $6,336–$7,744 -23.9%
    瑞士
    $4,050–$4,950 $6.90 $11.04 $6,220–$7,603 -23.7%
    萨尔瓦多
    $2,700–$3,300 $9.50 $15.20 -13.7%
    萨摩亚
    $2,250–$2,750 $4.00 $6.40 -5.7%
    塞尔维亚
    $2,970–$3,630 $7.00 $11.20 $6,623–$8,095 -23.7%
    塞拉利昂
    $2,841–$3,472 $8.70 $13.92 -13.5%
    塞内加尔
    $2,771–$3,386 $6.80 $10.88 -13.3%
    塞浦路斯
    $2,970–$3,630 $7.00 $11.20 -23.7%
    塞舌尔
    $2,334–$2,853 $7.20 $11.52 -11.3%
    编辑池航线。 沙特阿拉伯
    $2,430–$2,970 $6.00 $9.60 -16.3%
    圣多美和普林西比
    $3,422–$4,183 $8.60 $13.76 -13.6%
    圣基茨和尼维斯
    $6,840–$8,360 $10.00 $16.00 -13.9%
    圣卢西亚
    $6,840–$8,360 $10.00 $16.00 -13.9%
    圣马力诺
    $2,771–$3,386 $6.80 $10.88 -24.0%
    圣文森特和格林纳丁斯
    $6,840–$8,360 $10.00 $16.00 -13.9%
    斯里兰卡
    $990–$1,210 $5.50 $8.80 -10.2%
    斯洛伐克
    $2,250–$2,750 $7.50 $12.00 $5,875–$7,180 -23.7%
    斯洛文尼亚
    $2,970–$3,630 $7.00 $11.20 -23.7%
    斯威士兰
    $2,334–$2,853 $7.20 $11.52 -13.6%
    苏丹
    $5,643–$6,897 $6.50 $10.40 -20.1%
    苏里南
    $2,459–$3,006 $9.40 $15.04 +0.3%
    所罗门群岛
    $2,250–$2,750 $4.00 $6.40 -5.7%
    索马里
    $1,710–$2,090 $5.50 $8.80 -11.6%
    塔吉克斯坦
    $2,771–$3,386 $6.80 $10.88 $4,896–$5,984 -3.0%
    台湾
    $540–$660 $2.50 $4.25 -2.0%
    泰国
    $1,093–$1,336 $1.00 $1.80 -4.8%
    编辑池航线。 坦桑尼亚
    $1,710–$2,090 $5.50 $8.80 -11.6%
    汤加
    $2,250–$2,750 $4.00 $6.40 -5.7%
    特立尼达和多巴哥
    $6,840–$8,360 $10.00 $16.00 -13.9%
    突尼斯
    $4,995–$6,105 $6.30 $10.08 -20.1%
    图瓦卢
    $2,250–$2,750 $4.00 $6.40 -5.7%
    编辑池航线。 土耳其
    $2,295–$2,805 $6.50 $10.40 $7,110–$8,690 -23.9%
    土库曼斯坦
    $2,771–$3,386 $6.80 $10.88 $5,184–$6,336 -3.0%
    瓦努阿图
    $2,250–$2,750 $4.00 $6.40 -5.7%
    危地马拉
    $2,700–$3,300 $9.50 $15.20 -13.7%
    委内瑞拉
    $2,459–$3,006 $9.40 $15.04 +0.3%
    文莱
    $974–$1,191 $1.80 $3.25 -3.8%
    乌干达
    $1,710–$2,090 $5.50 $8.80 -11.6%
    乌克兰
    $2,250–$2,750 $7.50 $12.00 $6,336–$7,744 -23.7%
    乌拉圭
    $2,250–$2,750 $11.00 $17.60 =
    编辑池航线。 乌兹别克斯坦
    $2,771–$3,386 $6.80 $10.88 $4,608–$5,632 -3.0%
    西班牙
    $3,195–$3,905 $7.26 $11.62 $6,336–$7,744 -24.1%
    希腊
    $2,970–$3,630 $7.00 $11.20 -23.7%
    新加坡
    $380–$480 $1.70 $4.00 -4.4%
    新西兰
    $2,205–$2,695 $4.20 $6.72 -5.8%
    匈牙利
    $2,250–$2,750 $7.50 $12.00 $5,875–$7,180 -23.7%
    叙利亚
    $2,629–$3,214 $6.40 $10.24 -15.3%
    牙买加
    $6,840–$8,360 $10.00 $16.00 -13.9%
    亚美尼亚
    $2,629–$3,214 $6.40 $10.24 -23.6%
    也门
    $2,629–$3,214 $6.40 $10.24 -15.3%
    伊拉克
    $2,629–$3,214 $6.40 $10.24 -15.3%
    伊朗
    $2,771–$3,386 $6.80 $10.88 -15.7%
    以色列
    $3,006–$3,674 $7.00 $11.20 -15.4%
    意大利
    $3,060–$3,740 $6.70 $10.72 $6,336–$7,744 -23.6%
    印度
    $1,050–$1,285 $4.50 $7.20 -11.9%
    印度尼西亚
    $1,225–$1,500 $2.30 $3.68 -4.4%
    英国
    $2,205–$2,695 $7.30 $11.68 $6,623–$8,095 -24.0%
    编辑池航线。 约旦
    $2,629–$3,214 $6.40 $10.24 -15.3%
    越南
    $720–$880 $1.40 $3.50 -4.5%
    赞比亚
    $2,334–$2,853 $7.20 $11.52 -13.6%
    乍得
    $2,841–$3,472 $8.70 $13.92 -13.5%
    智利
    $2,700–$3,300 $6.80 $10.88 =
    中非共和国
    $3,422–$4,183 $8.60 $13.76 -13.6%
    中国
    $2,771–$3,386 $6.80 $10.88 -3.0%
    中国香港特别行政区
    $550–$680 $2.20 $3.75 -3.5%
    方法论

    我们如何对照公开指数进行校准。

    01 · 数据源

    运价为 SINO Shipping 自有的月度中位数 覆盖 196 条中国出口航线 — 是一家货代的业务账簿,而非多承运人指数。每月同一周采集 FCL/LCL/空运/铁路/快递。

    02 · 校准

    Lane Tracker 发布的是单一货代基准。对于约14-16条没有公开基准的新兴市场航线(中间走廊、东非、中东北非次级市场、东南亚次级市场、加勒比地区),市面上不存在可比数据。

    03 · 节奏与修正

    每月在最后一周发布,方法论版本为 v1。重大修正记入方法论页面的变更日志;过往月份快照按发布值固化。

    完整方法论

    媒体与数据

    引用本期存档,或想联系背后的分析师?