Ocean rates tumble across North America and Europe; Africa mixed; ASEAN sea rates plunge while Asia-Pacific air faces tariff shocks.
After a volatile first half, July’s market softening and excess capacity drove broad-based ocean rate declines into August—especially across the U.S., Canada, and Europe. Africa delivered a patchwork of moves, while Asia-Pacific saw sharp ASEAN sea rate drops and tariff-driven turbulence in air.
Key Freight Market Trends — August 2025
- Trans-Pacific unwind: Spot rates from Asia to the U.S. West Coast fell sharply on surplus capacity, pulling North American import costs lower.
- Tariff cross-currents: A 90-day reprieve on higher U.S. tariffs for Mexico eases near-term pressure, but reciprocal tariff actions effective August 1, 2025 are whipsawing Asia-Pacific air markets.
- Carrier & regulatory moves: CMA CGM revised Med/North Africa tariffs from August; Mediterranean Sulphur ECA (May 2025) lifts operating costs; Kenya COO mandate (effective July 1, transition to Sept 30) and DR Congo 2% levy add paperwork and cost.
- Red Sea detours continue to lengthen transit and raise costs for Asia–Europe flows.
- E-commerce keeps air resilient, even as some hubs post month-over-month declines.
North America
Executive snapshot: USA ocean plunges on both coasts; LAX air ↑, JFK/MIA air ↓. Canada’s Toronto/Montreal ocean down sharply; air mostly softer. Mexico sees 20GP ↑, 40GP ↓; air eased uniformly.
Sea Freight (USD)
| Country/Port | Container | Rate (July → Aug) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA – Los Angeles/Long Beach | 20GP | $2,800 → $1,880 | -33% |
| USA – Los Angeles/Long Beach | 40GP | $3,400 → $2,350 | -31% |
| USA – New York/Savannah/Norfolk | 20GP | $4,200 → $2,650 | -37% |
| USA – New York/Savannah/Norfolk | 40GP | $5,100 → $3,150 | -38% |
| Canada – Toronto | 20GP | $4,700 → $4,000 | -15% |
| Canada – Toronto | 40GP | $7,000 → $4,400 | -37% |
| Canada – Montreal | 20GP | $4,700 → $3,550 | -24% |
| Canada – Montreal | 40GP | $7,000 → $4,300 | -39% |
| Mexico – Manzanillo | 20GP | $2,250 → $2,500 | +11% |
| Mexico – Manzanillo | 40GP | $3,600 → $3,000 | -17% |
| Mexico – Lázaro Cárdenas | 20GP | $2,250 → $2,500 | +11% |
| Mexico – Lázaro Cárdenas | 40GP | $3,600 → $3,000 | -17% |
Air Freight (USD/kg)
| Airport | Rate (July → Aug) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| USA – LAX | $4.0 → $4.5 | +13% |
| USA – JFK | $6.0 → $5.6 | -7% |
| USA – MIA | $6.0 → $5.5 | -8% |
| Canada – YVR | $6.0 → $5.5 | -8% |
| Canada – YYZ | $6.0 → $5.8 | -3% |
| Canada – YUL | $6.0 → $6.0 | 0% |
| Mexico – MEX | $7.5 → $7.0 | -7% |
| Mexico – GDL | $7.5 → $7.0 | -7% |
| Mexico – MTY | $7.5 → $7.0 | -7% |
Takeaway: Importers to the U.S. and Canada can capitalize on lower ocean costs now; watch tariff timing and capacity blankings into September. Mexico cross-border softness favors negotiators on both air and ocean.
Europe
Executive snapshot: Main ports (UK/NL/FR/DE/BE) show steep ocean declines and softer air. Mediterranean: Italy/Spain sea down; Turkey flat; Spain air +7% while Italy/Turkey air fell. Switzerland/Poland sea stable; air edges lower.
Sea Freight (USD)
| Region/Port | Container | Rate (July → Aug) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italy (Genoa) | 20GP | $2,950 → $2,650 | -10% |
| Italy (Genoa) | 40GP | $4,310 → $3,300 | -23% |
| Spain (Barcelona/Valencia) | 20GP | $2,950 → $2,115 | -28% |
| Spain (Barcelona/Valencia) | 40GP | $4,310 → $3,100 | -28% |
| Turkey (Istanbul) | 20GP | $1,460 → $1,460 | 0% |
| Turkey (Istanbul) | 40GP | $2,550 → $2,550 | 0% |
| UK (Southampton) | 20GP | $2,765 → $1,900 | -31% |
| UK (Southampton) | 40HQ | $3,655 → $3,250 | -11% |
| Netherlands (Rotterdam) | 20GP | $2,765 → $1,900 | -31% |
| Netherlands (Rotterdam) | 40GP | $3,660 → $3,250 | -11% |
| France (Le Havre) | 20GP | $2,765 → $1,900 | -31% |
| France (Le Havre) | 40GP | $3,660 → $3,250 | -11% |
| Germany (Hamburg) | 20GP | $2,765 → $1,900 | -31% |
| Germany (Hamburg) | 40GP | $3,660 → $3,250 | -11% |
| Belgium (Antwerp) | 20GP | $2,765 → $1,900 | -31% |
| Belgium (Antwerp) | 40GP | $3,660 → $3,250 | -11% |
| Switzerland (Basel) | 20GP | $2,550 → $2,550 | 0% |
| Switzerland (Basel) | 40GP | $4,400 → $4,400 | 0% |
| Poland (Gdansk) | 20GP | $2,300 → $2,300 | 0% |
| Poland (Gdansk) | 40GP | $3,700 → $3,700 | 0% |
Air Freight (USD/kg)
| Country/City | Rate (July → Aug) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| UK – LHR | $4.1 → $3.0 | -27% |
| UK – MAN | $4.9 → $4.2 | -14% |
| UK – BHX | $4.3 → $4.0 | -7% |
| France – (National) | $4.35 → $4.1 | -6% |
| Germany – (National) | $3.9 → $3.5 | -10% |
| Spain – (National) | $3.9 → $4.17 | +7% |
| Italy – (National) | $4.3 → $3.5 | -19% |
| Turkey – Istanbul | $5.0 → $4.5 | -10% |
Takeaway: Carrier revisions (CMA CGM) and Med ECA costs create a low-now/uncertain-later setup. Lock favorable FAK where possible; monitor India–Europe spillovers and Middle East risks.
Africa
Executive snapshot: West Africa ocean down with some air upticks; East Africa mixed; South Africa ocean up while air down; Central/North largely stable.
Sea Freight (USD)
| Region/Port | Container | Rate (July → Aug) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ghana (Tema) | 20GP | $4,100 → $3,600 | -12% |
| Ghana (Tema) | 40GP | $5,400 → $4,400 | -19% |
| Nigeria (Apapa) | 20GP | $5,000 → $4,550 | -9% |
| Nigeria (Apapa) | 40GP | $6,400 → $5,400 | -16% |
| Ivory Coast (Abidjan) | 20GP | $4,100 → $3,600 | -12% |
| Ivory Coast (Abidjan) | 40GP | $5,400 → $4,400 | -19% |
| Senegal (Dakar) | 20GP | $4,800 → $4,650 | -3% |
| Senegal (Dakar) | 40GP | $5,700 → $5,400 | -5% |
| Togo (Lomé) | 20GP | $4,100 → $3,600 | -12% |
| Togo (Lomé) | 40GP | $5,400 → $4,400 | -19% |
| Kenya (Mombasa) | 20GP | $1,600 → $1,600 | 0% |
| Kenya (Mombasa) | 40GP | $1,900 → $1,900 | 0% |
| Rwanda (Kigali) | 20GP | $7,200 → $7,400 | +3% |
| Rwanda (Kigali) | 40GP | $9,450 → $9,450 | 0% |
| Uganda (Kampala) | 20GP | $6,210 → $5,810 | -6% |
| Uganda (Kampala) | 40GP | $7,570 → $7,000 | -8% |
| Congo (Matadi) | 20GP | $5,500 → $5,300 | -4% |
| Congo (Matadi) | 40GP | $6,500 → $6,500 | 0% |
| South Africa (Durban) | 20GP | $2,750 → $3,275 | +19% |
| South Africa (Durban) | 40HQ | $3,450 → $4,350 | +26% |
| South Africa (Cape Town) | 20GP | $2,825 → $3,375 | +19% |
| South Africa (Cape Town) | 40HQ | $3,650 → $4,550 | +25% |
| Sudan | 20GP | $6,100 → $6,100 | 0% |
| Sudan | 40GP | $6,270 → $6,270 | 0% |
Air Freight (USD/kg)
| Country/City | Rate (July → Aug) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ghana | $7.0 → $7.1 | +1% |
| Nigeria | $6.0 → $6.1 | +2% |
| Ivory Coast | $8.0 → $8.0 | 0% |
| Senegal | $6.5 → $7.2 | +11% |
| Togo | $7.8 → $7.8 | 0% |
| Kenya | $6.0 → $5.7 | -5% |
| Rwanda | $7.0 → $7.0 | 0% |
| Uganda | $6.5 → $6.5 | 0% |
| Congo (DRC) | $7.0 → $7.0 | 0% |
| South Africa | $6.0 → $5.5 | -8% |
| Sudan | $6.5 → $6.5 | 0% |
Heads-up: Factor in Kenya COO (effective July 1; transition to Sept 30) and DRC 2% levy (from July 14) in your landed-cost models.
Asia–Pacific
Executive snapshot: Oceania sea ↑ and air slightly ↓; ASEAN sea ↓↓↓ and air ↑ in several hubs post-tariffs; South Asia sea ↓ sharply with mixed air (India ↓, Sri Lanka ↑); East Asia (Japan) steady-to-lower at sea, flat in air.
Sea Freight (USD)
| Sub-region/Port | Container | Rate (July → Aug) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia (SYD/MEL/BNE) | 20GP | $1,100 → $1,350 | +23% |
| Australia (SYD/MEL/BNE) | 40GP | $2,100 → $2,550 | +21% |
| New Zealand (Auckland) | 20GP | $800 → $850 | +6% |
| New Zealand (Auckland) | 40GP | $1,500 → $1,600 | +7% |
| Singapore | 20GP | $365 → $325 | -11% |
| Singapore | 40GP | $590 → $550 | -7% |
| Malaysia (PKG/PNG/PGU) | 20GP | $835 → $705 | -16% |
| Malaysia (PKG/PNG/PGU) | 40GP | $1,350 → $1,160 | -14% |
| Indonesia (JKT/SUB/SMG) | 20GP | $620 → $415 | -33% |
| Indonesia (JKT/SUB/SMG) | 40GP | $1,020 → $675 | -34% |
| Thailand (BKK/LCB) | 20GP | $485 → $275 | -43% |
| Thailand (BKK/LCB) | 40GP | $775 → $480 | -38% |
| Vietnam (HCM/HHP) | 20GP | $225 → $135 | -40% |
| Vietnam (HCM/HHP) | 40GP | $300 → $150 | -50% |
| Philippines (MNL/CEB) | 20GP | $75 → $75 | 0% |
| Philippines (MNL/CEB) | 40GP | $100 → $100 | 0% |
| India (Nhava Sheva/Chennai) | 20GP | $1,900 → $1,150 | -39% |
| India (Nhava Sheva/Chennai) | 40GP | $2,200 → $1,250 | -43% |
| Sri Lanka (Colombo) | 20GP | $1,810 → $1,600 | -12% |
| Sri Lanka (Colombo) | 40GP | $2,600 → $1,700 | -35% |
| Japan (Tokyo/Yokohama/Kobe) | 20GP | $345 → $300 | -13% |
| Japan (Tokyo/Yokohama/Kobe) | 40GP | $590 → $500 | -15% |
Air Freight (USD/kg)
| Country/City | Rate (July → Aug) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Australia | $4.5 → $4.0 | -11% |
| New Zealand | $4.2 → $4.0 | -5% |
| Singapore | $1.1 → $2.0 | +82% |
| Malaysia | $1.5 → $1.5 | 0% |
| Indonesia | $2.0 → $2.3 | +15% |
| Thailand | $1.0 → $1.5 | +50% |
| Vietnam | $1.1 → $1.5 | +36% |
| Philippines | $1.2 → $2.1 | +75% |
| India | $4.65 → $4.5 | -3% |
| Sri Lanka | $5.0 → $5.5 | +10% |
| Japan | $1.5 → $1.5 | 0% |
Takeaway: With Aug 1 reciprocal tariffs reshuffling APAC air, many shippers can pivot to ocean in ASEAN/South Asia where rates are at multi-month lows—balancing against Red Sea-related lead-time risk.
Risk Watchlist & Dates
- US–Mexico: 90-day tariff reprieve—short-term relief but plan for cliff-edge scenarios.
- US reciprocal tariffs (APAC): Effective Aug 1, 2025—air volatility risk.
- CMA CGM Med/North Africa revisions: Effective Aug 2025—potential lift in all-in costs.
- Med Sulphur ECA: In effect since May 2025—structural opex ↑ for Med lanes.
- Kenya COO requirement: Effective July 1; transition until Sept 30, 2025—budget time & fees.
- DR Congo 2% levy (non-food imports): From July 14, 2025—update landed-cost models.
- Red Sea rerouting: Ongoing—pad 7–18 days depending on loop and carrier policy.
What to Do This Month: Shipper Playbook
- Lock ocean savings (NA/EU/ASEAN/South Asia): Negotiate 2–4 week allocations; avoid long fixes while carriers probe GRIs; add index-linked clauses to protect downside.
- Rebalance air vs ocean (APAC): Move non-urgent SKUs to ocean; reserve air for margin-critical SKUs; use secondary airports to dodge tariff-driven congestion.
- Compliance hygiene (East/Central Africa): Build a COO checklist for Kenya; add +2% DRC line item in quotes and P&L.
- Buffer for Red Sea: Quote realistic ETAs and safety stock; consider EU North Range alternates when Med congestion spikes.
- Cash-flow & pricing: Use the trough to advance bookings on must-move SKUs; reprice DDP where air ↑ (Singapore/Philippines/Thailand).
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Are ocean freight rates falling in August 2025?
Yes—especially in the U.S., Canada and Europe, with notable drops at LA/LB, NY-area ports, Rotterdam, Hamburg, and Le Havre. Africa and APAC are mixed by sub-region.
Should I switch from air to ocean?
If your SKUs can handle longer lead-times, yes—particularly out of ASEAN and South Asia where ocean rates plunged. Keep air for urgent, high-margin items or SLA-critical replenishments.
What’s the impact of Kenya’s COO rule?
All imports require a Certificate of Origin issued by the exporting authority (effective July 1, with a transition window until Sept 30, 2025). Expect extra processing time and minor documentation costs.
Will Mediterranean rates rise again?
They could. CMA CGM revisions from August, Sulphur ECA costs, and peak-season dynamics may lift Med all-in costs from current lows—lock short-term FAK where possible.
How should I plan for Red Sea detours?
Pad ETAs by 7–18 days depending on service loop; diversify routings; forward-buy critical allocations; consider EU North Range ports when Med reliability weakens.
